Warriors vs. Kings Game 5 pick: NBA Playoff odds, prediction
We’ve been treated to plenty of twists and turns throughout this series between the Warriors and Kings in what’s been easily the most entertaining matchup of the NBA’s first round.
The latest shift came earlier this week, when Sacramento star De’Aaron Fox was diagnosed with a fractured index finger that threatens to sideline him for Wednesday’s Game 5.
He’ll likely suit up, though the injury prompted oddsmakers to price the Warriors as road favorites for the first time in this series.
Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.
Kings vs. Warriors odds
- Warriors -1.5 (-110), moneyline -125
- Kings +1.5 (-110), moneyline +105
- O/U 234.5 (-110)
Kings vs. Warriors prediction and analysis
(10 p.m. ET on TNT)
What promised to be an epic Game 5 in a tied series was complicated with Monday’s news that Fox could miss Wednesday’s pivotal contest with that fractured index finger on his shooting hand.
He’s since said he’ll most likely play through the pain, as he did down the stretch of Game 4.
But just how effective will he be?
While he finished with 38 points on Sunday, he missed four of his final five shots and just one of his four made 3-pointers came in the fourth quarter.
If Fox isn’t right on Wednesday, that’ll have an outsized effect on an offense that’s become dependent on his stellar play-making in this series.
His 31.5 points per game are tied for the fourth-most by any player in this postseason, and he’s the only one of those players averaging at least seven assists per game.
He’s been the engine all year for the most efficient offense in NBA history. And if Sacramento doesn’t win with its offense, the margins become infinitely smaller to beat the reigning champions.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have seemingly unlocked their own upside on both ends of the court, as they’re wont to do this time of year.
Their small-ball lineup with Jordan Poole starting in place of Draymond Green paid immediate dividends in Game 3 – when their defense held the Kings to their worst shooting night of the season (38.8%) – and again in Game 4, when Golden State hit 14 threes and shot 50% from the floor.
Green still made a significant impact in 30 minutes off the bench, helping limit Sacramento to just 16 attempts at the rim on Sunday.
That won’t fly for the Kings’ offense in Game 5, especially if Fox’s stroke is limited in any way by the injury to his shooting hand.
It’s hard to completely ignore the Warriors’ issues on the road, though that feels a bit reductive in a series where three of four games have come down to the wire.
It’s also dismissive of the longstanding success that this core roster has had in road playoff games, winning at least one in a record 27 consecutive postseason series.
This sure feels like the spot for another one, especially with Fox ailing and co-star Domantas Sabonis struggling to make his presence felt against the frontcourt of Green and unsung hero Kevon Looney.
In many ways, it’s surprising Golden State isn’t dealing as a bigger favorite after winning two straight games ahead of Wednesday’s rubber match.
The last two Game 5 favorites coming off consecutive wins in a 2-2 series won by double digits, and each covered the spread with room to spare.
I don’t expect this one to be quite so lopsided, but there are too many red flags surrounding the Kings right now to bet against the defending champs.
