Warriors vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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28 November 2023

Warriors vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Warriors have had an up-and-down season and see themselves as road underdogs against the Kings in Sacramento. With Draymond Green returning to the lineup and Klay Thompson rounding into form, our betting picks wonder if the Dubs can get a Dub.

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The Golden State Warriors are in the midst of a strange season. They’ve had several key players in and out of the lineup and have not gotten the consistency they’ve needed from their core players when they’ve been on the floor. Now, a tough test awaits with the pesky Sacramento Kings on the road.

Might the Warriors, as disappointing as they’ve been, have a way in here versus Sacramento as slight underdogs in the latest NBA odds?

Let's dive right into it with our in-depth preview and NBA picks for Warriors vs. Kings on Tuesday, November 28.

Warriors vs Kings odds

Warriors vs Kings predictions

The Sacramento Kings’ torrid run through the heart of November has slowed down significantly in recent games. They’ve lost two out of their last three, struggling specifically in the rebounding department, and that’s largely been due to the loss of Keegan Murray.

Murray was injured just 16 minutes into the loss to New Orleans a week ago, and he’s doubtful to play against the Golden State Warriors tonight. Sacramento grabbed just 39.4% of available rebounds in that game and corralled just 45.3% in its next game. Things improved marginally against a solid rebounding group in the Timberwolves.

Now, the Kings get the Warriors.

The Warriors, who rank just outside of the Top 10 in rebounding this season, have an opportunity to gain a significant edge in that area against the Kings, who will all but certainly be without Murray, and that should spell trouble for an already flawed Sacramento team that has struggled to defend — specifically on the perimeter.

Golden State has thrived from deep this year and once again finds itself just outside the Top 5 in 3-point frequency, while the Kings rank 23rd in defending the deep ball this season. There shouldn’t be a wealth of missed jump shots from the Warriors, but any balls that do bounce off the iron should be available for Golden State to snatch away from a weak Kings frontcourt.

The Warriors’ offensive production has fluctuated, but they’ve also had to deal with one of their top players, Draymond Green, missing time along with a bad start to the season for Klay Thompson. I expect Golden State’s offense to thrive given the profile of both teams, and with a glaring discrepancy on the glass, the road team should prevail here. I have my doubts about the Warriors this year, but this is a number you play every time.

My best bet: Warriors moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)

Warriors vs Kings same-game parlay

Warriors moneyline

Dario Saric 6+ rebounds

Klay Thompson 15+ points

Yes, the Kings did out-rebound the Warriors the last time these teams met, but that was prior to Steve Kerr deploying Dario Saric for serious minutes. The stretch forward has begun to play 25+ minutes with regularity and was able to feast on the Kings’ second unit in their last meeting with six boards in just 19 minutes. Now, without Murray, the matchup will be incredibly familiar and I expect similar results out of Saric.

The former Sixers forward has now collected six or more boards in three of his last four games and should be out on the floor for a large portion of minutes as the Warriors look to take full advantage of a weak perimeter defense on the other side of the floor.

Speaking of, I also like Thompson to hit 15 points for a fifth straight game. He’s trying to shoot himself out of his slump, and while it’s been mixed overall, he’s actually shot at 48.3% from three over his last three contests. I did consider drinking the juice on him to knock down three triples here, but I think this should be safe as he’s gotten to the line plenty and should find himself uncovered from midrange. He’s averaging 16 against the Kings through two games, to boot.

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Warriors vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

The Warriors rank just 16th on the defensive end this year, and while you’d suspect the loss of Green for several games this season has something to do with that, his absence has actually been felt most on the offensive end.

I think what we’re going to see on Tuesday is a meeting between two high-power offenses that meet little resistance on the defensive end. On top of that, the Warriors already rank 12th in pace and should be in a pace-up spot against a Kings team that has turned up the tempo over their last six games, averaging a faster pace than their 13th-ranked 100.27 rating.

That leads me to lean towards the Over in this contest, even in one with a relatively high number. DraftKings has taken 61% of the bets but just 48% of the handle on the Over, perhaps indicating that big bettors are backing a resurgence from the Warriors on the defensive end as the season wears on and a slight cool down from the Kings with the loss of Murray.

Similarly, Golden State accounts for just 25% of the handle on the spread while taking in 35% of the bets on this line. I do agree with the sharps that the Warriors have been overvalued early in the season, but I won’t be choosing this spot to sell.

Warriors vs Kings betting trend to know

The Sacramento Kings have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games at home (-22.40 Units / -24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.

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