Warriors vs. Kings Predictions & Best Bets

The Golden State Warriors take a 3-2 lead into a decisive Game 6 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Warriors are listed as favorites by 7.5 points for the game, which airs on ESPN at 8:00 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is 235.

Keep reading for the best bets you can make on Friday’s game, based on our computer predictions.

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Spread: Kings (+7.5) to Cover

• The spread for this game suggested by the model (3.3 points) is much tighter than the 7.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Warriors, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Kings to cover.
• Sacramento has a 45-36-1 record against the spread this year.
• The Kings have covered the spread twice this season (2-2 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point underdogs.
• Golden State has a 39-43-0 record against the spread this season.
• The Warriors have been favored by 7.5 points or more 24 times this season, and covered the spread in 13 of those contests.

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Total: Over 235

• The model predicts a total 2.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
• Golden State and its opponent have broken the 235-point mark 43 times this year.
• Sacramento’s games have had over 235 points 46 times this season.
• The Warriors and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 43 out of 82 times this season.
• A total of 41 Kings games this season have gone over the point total.

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Moneyline Winner: Warriors (-305)

• Prediction: Warriors 120, Kings 117
• This season, Golden State has been favored 58 times and won 37, or 63.8%, of those games.
• Sacramento has come away with 13 wins in the 30 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.

Jordan Poole Points Prop: Over 16.5

• Jordan Poole posts 20.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per contest, shooting 43.0% from the field and 33.6% from beyond the arc with 2.6 made 3-pointers per contest.
• The 20.4 points Poole scores per game are 3.9 more than his over/under on Friday (16.5).
• Poole has gone over on his points prop total 32 times this season out of 76 games with such a prop.
• On offense, the Kings are the best team in the league (120.7 points per game). On defense, they are 25th (118.1 points conceded per game).

De’Aaron Fox Points Prop: Over 26.5

• The Kings are getting 25.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game from De’Aaron Fox this year.
• The 25.0 points Fox has scored per game this season is 1.5 fewer than his prop bet over/under set for Friday (26.5).
• So far this season, Fox is 36-for-72 at going over the total set for his points prop.
• The Warriors sport a top-five offense this season, ranking second-best in the league with 118.9 points per game. On defense, they rank 21st with 117.1 points allowed per contest.

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All stats in this article refer to the 2022-23 regular season.

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