Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions
The Washington Nationals (69-89) and the Baltimore Orioles (98-59) finish a 2-game series Wednesday at Camden Yards. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 3-0
It was a classic pitcher’s duel Tuesday night in Baltimore. A solo home run by Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson in the 1st inning was the only run scored by either team.
Nationals RHP Josiah Gray threw 6 innings, allowing just 5 H and 2 BB with 7 K. But Orioles’ RHP Kyle Bradish had a better night, throwing 8 shutout innings with just 3 H, 2 BB with 4 K.
Nationals at Orioles projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Corbin (10-14, 5.13 ERA) makes his 32nd. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 175 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 9-6 home loss vs. the Atlanta Braves on Friday
- 2023 road stats: 6-5, 4.83 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 49 ER) in 16 starts.
- Career vs. Orioles: 1-4, 4.93 ERA (42 IP, 23 ER) in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
Rodriguez (6-4, 4.49 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 116 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K in a 5-2 road loss vs. Cleveland Guardians on Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 3-2, 4.88 ERA (59 IP, 32 ER) in 11 starts
- First career start against the Nationals
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Nationals at Orioles odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:32 a.m. ET.
Nationals at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Nationals 5
There are a lot of reasons to pick the Orioles to sweep the season series against the Nationals, but on the betting side there is no value at picking Baltimore at -250. It is best to PASS and look at the run line.
Washington has been surprisingly successful against the spread this season. They have covered in 49 of 77 games as a road underdog (63.6%). They also are 48-40 ATS after a loss.
The Orioles, who are among the best teams in baseball, struggle at home as a favorite, covering just 40% of the time (23-34) in Camden Yards.
You don’t often see plus odds when you add runs so I like the value in picking the Nationals to keep it close or possibly win.
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (+100).
After Tuesday’s 1-0 game, Wednesday’s line sits at a lowly 7.5 runs.
Among the things Washington batters do right is avoid striking out. They rank 2nd in strikeouts per game (7.08). But Washington pitchers struggle to get strikeouts and rank 28th in opponent strikeouts (7.53).
After a win, Baltimore is 51-41-5 toward the Over while Washington is 43-41-4 after a loss.
There should be a lot of contact on the ball Wednesday.
