Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks, predictions

The Washington Nationals (50-65) and Philadelphia Phillies (63-52) wrap up their 4-game series at Citizens Bank Park Thursday. First pitch is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-4

The Nationals lost 7-0 Wednesday and were held hitless for the first time since moving from Montreal. Washington slipped to 4-2 during its 7-game road trip. The Nats have been outscored 65-33 by the Phillies over the season series.

Philadelphia won for the 7th time in their last 10 games behind a no-hitter from RHP Michael Lorenzen Wednesday. It was the first Phillies no-hitter since Cole Hamels tossed one in 2015. Phili is 32-22 on the season at Citizens Bank Park.

Nationals at Phillies projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Corbin (7-11, 5.03 ERA) will make his 24th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 132 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 road victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Friday
• 2023 away splits: 4-4, 5.31 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 37 ER), .271 OBA in 11 starts
• First start vs. Phillies in 2023
• 2022 vs. Phillies: 0-4, 11.74 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 20 ER) in 4 starts

Nola (9-8, 4.58 ERA) will make his 24th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 143 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 7-5 home loss vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
• 2023 home splits: 4-3, 3.75 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 24 ER), .210 OBA in 9 starts
• First start vs. Nationals in 2023
• 2022 vs. Nationals: 1-1, 1.52 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 4 ER) in 4 starts

Nationals at Phillies odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Nationals 2

AVOID.

The Phillies (-250) are likely to win this game and that’s why they are such heavy favorites, but this price tag makes the risk not worth the reward.

I will say that I don’t hate the idea of putting half a unit on the Nationals (+200) simply for the value because Philly only leads the season series 5-4. I’m not predicting that outcome, but we have seen odder things happen.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-125).

It is shocking to see that Nola has not started against the Nationals in any of their 9 games this season but he has probably been licking his chops after owning Washington in 2022.

Corbin has just one career win against Philadelphia over 9 starts. When you look at the heart of the Phillies lineup; OF Bryce Harper, C J.T. Realmuto, 3B Alec Bohm and DH Kyle Schwarber all have over a .289 batting average and .400 OBP.  Philadelphia is also 18-16 against lefties this season.

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BET UNDER 9 (-105).

This may be a little bit of a risk being that these two teams have been at 9 total runs or more in 6 of their 9 matchups.

Nola will handle this Nationals lineup who has averaged just over 3 1/2 runs per game against Philadelphia.

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