Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Twins (61-58) conclude a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (65-53) on Sunday. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Twins defeated the Phillies 8-1 on Saturday behind homers from SS Carlos Correa, OF Matt Wallner and OF Joey Gallo (twice). Minnesota snapped a 4-game losing streak and it remains in 1st place in the AL Central.

While the Phillies had a 3-game win streak snapped Saturday, SS Trea Turner extended his hit streak to 9 games with a 3-hit performance. Philadelphia is 9 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves for 1st place in the NL East, but holds the top Wild-Card spot

Twins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Sonny Gray vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Gray (5-5, 3.18 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 130 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 6-0 road defeat to the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday
• 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.34 ERA (67 1/3 IP, 25 ER) in 12 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 0-1, 4.29 ERA (21 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts

Suarez (2-5, 3.96 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 91 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 5-4 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday
• Home stats: 0-2, 5.36 ERA (42 IP, 25 ER) in 8 starts
• First career start vs. the Twins

Twins at Phillies odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Twins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Twins 3

In the series finale, I’ll take the PHILLIES (-120) at home despite Suarez’s struggles at home. The Twins are tied for the 4th-worst strikeout rate (25.1%), and they own the 5th-worst wOBA (.299) and the 7th-worst wRC+ (91) against left-handed pitching this season.

PHILLIES -1.5 (+165) has fantastic value as Philadelphia looks to close the gap behind the Braves in the NL East. The Phillies have won by multiple runs in each of their last 9 victories.

After giving 1 or fewer ER in his 1st 6 starts, Gray has now given up 2 ER or more in 14 of his last 17 starts.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

UNDER 9 (-120) is the lean in this matchup for an early game on Sunday. The Phillies are 18-24-5 to the Over as home favorites this season, while the Twins are 14-16 to the Over as road underdogs.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup