Washington Nationals at Houston Astros odds and predictions
The Washington Nationals (26-38) and the Houston Astros (37-29) kick off a 3-game interleague series Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Astros won season series 2-1 in 2022
The Nationals scraped out a 6-2 win Sunday vs. the Atlanta Braves as +240 road underdogs after dropping the first 2 games of the weekend series. That victory halted a 6-game losing streak. The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 for a Washington club that is averaging just 3.4 runs per game (RPG) across its last 7 outings.
The Astros found the sledding surprisingly tough at the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, dropping 2 of 3 games. Houston was blanked 5-0 in Sunday’s series finale as the Under cashed for the 4th time in 6 games.
Washington has managed an 8-12 interleague record in 2023, while Houston is a much better 11-7 vs. NL teams.
Nationals at Astros projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Corbin (4-6, 4.89 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 6-2 road loss vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
- 2023 Road splits: 2-2, 5.72 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 18 ER – 7 HR) with a .298 OBA in 5 starts
Brown (5-3, 3.69 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 68 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in a 5-1 road loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays last Tuesday
- 2023 Home splits: 1-2, 4.05 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 12 ER – 0 HR) with a .260 OBA in 5 starts
Nationals at Astros odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 4:21 a.m. ET.
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Nationals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 8, Nationals 2
The Nationals (+200) are hot garbage, but you can’t back the Astros (-250) at this price. You would need to risk 2 1/2 times your potential return, and there is just no value there. It’s a terrible betting strategy to rely heavily on big favorites over the long term.
PASS, and look to the run line instead.
The ASTROS -1.5 (-130) are a much better value on the run line.
Houston took 3 of 4 games from the Los Angeles Angels last time it was home while covering the run line as a favorite in each of the victories. The Astros went 4-3 on their last homestand and they won by 2 or more runs in each of the 4 victories.
If you like the Astros to win, you should also like them to cover the run line. As a favorite, Houston is 13-5 in the past 18 games, while going 12-6 on the run line in those contests.
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OVER 8 (-120) is the play when the southpaw Corbin is on the bump.
The Over is 6-6-1 in his 13 starts this season and is 2-2-1 in his 5 starts on the road. It’s mostly that the offense has failed to provide much support in the games where the total has gone low, and it’s not really had anything to do with his pitching. The 33-year-old has just 7 quality starts in 13 outings, and he has allowed at least 2 runs in every assignment while conceding 3 or more runs in each of the past 3 starts and 7 games overall. The lefty is very giving, take advantage.
In even worse news for Corbin, the Over is 7-3 in Houston’s past 10 starts against a left-handed starting pitcher, while going 4-1 in the past 5 against teams with a losing overall record. The Over is 11-5 in the past 16 series openers for the ‘Stros, too.
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