Wednesday wagers: Practicality appeals at Tampa Bay Downs
Nine races are on tap at Tampa Bay Downs on the Wednesday before Christmas. Here's a look at five of them, with the hopes of spreading some early holiday cheer.
Best bet: Practicality (race 6)
Best value bet: Nurse Judy Whitney (race 9)
Race 1
No. 2 Dancin Dee (6-5, morning-line favorite) demolished a slightly weaker field over this course and distance when last seen – a repeat of that first lifetime effort on dirt would be more than good enough to triumph here. No. 3 Miss California (4-1) can be effective from close up or far back and has the breeding to handle conventional dirt – consider while getting in light with Madeline Rowland. No. 1 A Ring Thing (9-5) looks like the best of the rest if she runs to her turf form in this spot.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $12 exacta 2/3, $4 exacta 3/2, $4 exacta 2/1
Race 2
No. 7 Sir Aggravator (8-5, morning-line favorite) brings superior speed figures as well as a class edge to this group while invading from Gulfstream – a deserving favorite with a potentially ideal setup as a stalker with an outside post. No. 2 Its Fate (6-1) and No. 5 Private Lake (5-2) both exit the same race from Dec. 2 at Tampa going a route of ground. Each could benefit from the cutback, but I’ll give a slight nod to the former despite his finishing behind the latter by a length that day. He’ll be a better price and shouldn’t get burned up in a speed duel.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 7/2,5
Race 4
No. 5 Handsome Playboy (6-5, morning-line favorite) took to the dirt with aplomb when last seen, improving dramatically in the speed figure department to finish second in the Inaugural Stakes over this course at 33-1. With strong local connections in his corner in trainer Gerald Bennett (25%) and jockey Pablo Morales (23 percent), a short price looms. No. 2 Bright Forecast (2-1) paired together strong recent efforts at Delaware, albeit against short fields – logical alternative under Daniel Centeno (20 percent). No. 1 Majestic Pharoah (8-1) steps up off a maiden score, but looks good enough to secure the show dough with a repeat of that triumph.
How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 5/2, $3 exacta 2/5, $3 exacta 5/1
Race 6
No. 6 Practicality (6-5, morning-line favorite) stands out over this group of maidens following a well-rated debut second at Tampa last month. Expected improvement could see her crush these under Jesus Castanon. No. 2 Alexa’s Dream (5-2) checked in behind the top choice when last seen with a lifetime-best speed figure – the connections are cold, but based on form, she’s the most likely horse to grab place honors. No. 3 Ginger Sparkle (6-1) has hit the board only once in five dirt starts to date, but doesn’t have much to beat for third – look for potential improvement on the cutback in distance.
How I’d bet it: $16 exacta 6/2, $4 exacta 6/3
Race 9
No. 13 Nurse Judy Whitney (15-1) is an interesting price play regardless of surface, but must draw in off the also-eligible list. She improved dramatically in her second career start on synthetic at Gulfstream, running a race good enough to compete with these. Nurse Judy Whitney could take a step up with two tries under her belt now, and is not precluded from handling any surface based on pedigree. No. 7 Tea’s Dream (15-1) has long-shot appeal if this race stays on the lawn. She makes her second start off the bench after posting some decent efforts at this level at Tampa last season. No. 1 Syllabus (8-1) is 0-for-28 lifetime but is hard to leave out for exotics players with four in-the-money finishes from 11 career turf tries. No. 2 Shes Sky High (10-1) appears best of the potential dirt runners in the body of the field, with two runner-up efforts in four attempts to date.
How I’d bet it (turf): $4 win/place 13, $4 win/place 7, $2 exacta box 7/13, $1 exacta 7,13/1
How I’d bet it (dirt): $5 win/place 13, $4 win/place 2, $2 exacta box 2/13
