Wednesday Wagers: Smart money is on Smarthumor at Delaware

A solid eight-race card is on tap for opening day at Delaware Park. Join me as I break down my five favorite races below.

Best bet: Smarthumor (race 2)

Best value bet: Burgee (race 4)

Race 2

No. 3 Smarthumor (3-2, morning-line favorite) ran a clunker two back but surrounded it with a trio of efforts at Tampa Bay Downs that would be good enough to top these. The jockey change to Jaime Rodriguez (23 percent) is huge. No. 2 Sidney’s Bid (9-5) was a well-beaten second behind the top choice when they last met in a sprint. He’s never won going a route of ground – in fact, he’s 1-for-23 lifetime. But the speed figures stamp him as a logical alternative. No. 5 Triple Titos (3-1) also has been camera-shy in his career (1-for-26), but a repeat of either of his last two route efforts would likely land him a share.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 trifecta 3/2,5/2,5

Race 3

No. 8 Ragtime Belle (5-2) took a big step forward in her fourth career start, overcoming a hesitant beginning to pick up a third-place check at Keeneland. If she can replicate that race under Carol Cedeno (17 percent), she’s the most likely winner of this heat. No. 7 Sun Bee (9-5, morning-line favorite) had a productive winter in Florida and now has finished second four times in six career tries. She’s a dubious win proposition as a result but is far from impossible nonetheless. No. 5 Creole (6-1) tries the turf in her first start since December for the red-hot Brittany Russell barn. The return works are strong, and Sheldon Russell (28 percent) has the call.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 7/8

Race 4

No. 6 Burgee (8-1) held his own vs. much tougher over the fall and winter at Laurel and Charles Town and wisely drops in class after a trio of dull efforts, including one on turf that should be ignored. The son of Union Rags should work out a smooth stalking trip. No. 2 Mystic Link (7-5, morning-line favorite) is a versatile runner from the ever-dangerous Jamie Ness (23 percent) who that gives Rodriguez tactical options. He’s fast enough to win this, but his 0-for-6 lifetime record at Delaware is cause for pause. No. 3 Omati (8-5) could be dangerous if left alone up front – he’s won each of his last three route tries, though two of those came vs. softer.

How I’d bet it: $10 win 6, $5 exacta box 2/6

Race 6

The battle between No. 4 Parish Belle (9-5) and No. 5 Fly High (8-5, morning-line favorite) in this heat could be the entire Delaware meet in a nutshell, with Rodriguez and Ness competing with the Russell tandem. The former gets the nod off consecutive runner-up efforts vs. salty foes at Churchill. The latter ran only once early in her juvenile season – she adds Lasix and might improve with experience. No. 6 Sundog (15-1) has fired fresh before and could spice up the exotics.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta box 4/5, $2 trifecta 4,5/4,5/6

Race 8

No. 2 R Averie Lynn (9-2) will be the top pick in a tricky nightcap on the horse-for-course angle, as she boasts an 8: 5-3-0 record at Delaware. Her recent form is clouded by a multitude of off-track efforts, but she lures Daniel Centeno (18 percent) and clearly owns the back class to suggest she can win this at a decent price. No. 7 Mavilus (9-5, morning-line favorite) is more accomplished than the average runner at this level, with a couple of restricted stakes victories to her credit over five starts since last October. Scaling back to 5 1/2 furlongs could be this closer’s undoing, but Rodriguez will be in the irons. No. 5 Cabra Chica (10-1) looks well-spotted and owns a 6: 4-0-1 record at this distance.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/5/7, $3 exacta box 2/7, $2 win 5

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.