Wednesday wagers: Bettors should flock to Birdsofafeather
A great betting card is on tap at Horseshoe Indianapolis Wednesday, highlighted by a pair of state-bred stakes. I dive into my five favorite heats below.
Best bet: Birdsofafeather (race 4)
Best value bet: Hungarian Princess (race 8)
Race 1
No. 1 Ghost Bike (5-2, morning-line favorite) was competitive with maiden claimers at the Fair Grounds over the winter before finding open maidens too difficult over this course when last seen. He’ll try a new low Wednesday and looks tough to beat on speed figures. No. 4 Cambiaso (7-2) has had 13 chances to earn his diploma, but this looks like his lightest assignment to date from a class perspective. Jockey Marcelino Pedroza and trainer Genaro Garcia are clicking at 30 percent in their last 44 tries together. No. 5 Stealth Mission (6-1) might take to conventional dirt and fits with these from a speed-figure perspective – the morning-line odds are fair.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 1/4, $4 exacta 1/5, $4 exacta 4/1, $2 exacta 4/5
Race 4
No. 5 Birdsofafeather (10-1) closed smartly to split the field in a similar spot on debut – expect improvement and take a flyer with this live long shot. No. 10 Golden Heist (7-2, morning-line favorite) is 0-for-12 lifetime but is logical off her runner-up effort last time out where she beat five of today’s rivals, including the top choice. No. 7 Single Her (6-1) hit the exacta in her lone turf try at first asking but hasn’t raced since November.
How I’d bet it: $8 win 5, $4 exacta box 5/10, $2 exacta 5,10/7
Race 7
No. 8 Takafumi (12-1) has made a habit of finishing ahead of these rivals, but he faded badly when last seen. However, he showed much more early speed than usual in that May 15 outing. The positive rider switch to Pedroza suggests a return to off-the-pace tactics, and likely a strong punch in the lane at a nice price. No. 3 Wing Commander (3-1, morning-line favorite) has won each of his last two turf starts, both at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He’s a sound alternative who can set the pace or lay off of it. No. 2 Graceful Kitten (9-2) was a game second in his lone try over this course last time out – one to include for sure.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/3/8, $8 win 8
Race 8
No. 8 Hungarian Princess (3-1, morning-line favorite) has been a force to be reckoned with at this circuit, posting a 14: 7-5-0 lifetime record, with an 8: 5-3-0 mark sprinting six furlongs. Hard not to like her today based on the strong work tab for her 2023 unveiling. No. 11 Lil Evie (9-2) has four wins from seven starts at the distance and boasts competitive speed figures, she just needs to save as much ground as possible on the bend. No. 4 Betcha (5-1) should be forwardly placed and looks fast enough to compete with these, but she arguably gets both a negative jockey and trainer switch ahead of this.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 8/4,11
Race 9
No. 7 Mr Chaos (5-2, morning-line favorite) is training forwardly for his seasonal debut. He spent most of last year routing, but owns a 3-for-3 record going six panels. He’s also 9: 5-3-0 at Horseshoe Indy all-time. No. 9 Too Bad Justice (4-1) was bested by the top choice in their previous meeting, but a repeat of either of his last two efforts should enable him to land a share in this spot. No. 5 Bluegrass Prayer (5-1) takes a step up in class off of his second win over his last three overall – could work out a great stalking trip.
How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 7/9, $6 exacta 7/5, $2 exacta 9/7
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.
