Week 11 College Football Early Line Movement and Best Bets

NBC Sports

08 November 2023

Week 11 College Football Early Line Movement and Best Bets

This line has steadily shot up, for good reason, after Virginia QB Tony Muskett suffered a high ankle sprain and was replaced by freshman signal caller, and progressive rock legend, Anthony “Coheed and” Colandrea (5’11/180). He started three games earlier in the year and sports a 60% completion rate, but his ball security was too much to handle averaging two interceptions per start. Colandrea has shown extreme difficulty handling the pass rush, ranking 137th out of 144 FBS quarterbacks in PFF Passing Grade under pressure. It’s pretty reasonable to speculate that Colandrea will start this Thursday, as it’s a big ask for Muskett to return on a short week with a high ankle sprain. When asked about the backup freshman’s level of preparedness, UVA HC Tony Elliott said “It’s a challenge to prepare anybody in a short week to be honest with you,”

That’s a major issue since Louisville’s defense has been an absolute wagon this year, ranking 7th in EPA/Play and 13th overall with a 35% success rate. Their ability to pressure opposing QBs has been ferocious, earning the 14th highest PFF pass rush grade in the country while allowing 18 PPG (17th). The Cardinals beat VT and Duke by a combined score of 57-3 over their last two games and are poised to maul a limping Cavaliers who just dropped their most recent contest 45-17 against Georgia Tech. I think we see this line climb over the key number 21 as the week progresses, so grab Louisville now before Muskett is confirmed to be out.

In one of the more puzzling demotions of the 2023 seasons, Coach Prime embarrassed a well respected offensive mind in former OC Sean Lewis by relieving of his play calling duties and handing them over to Patrick Shurmur. The results were predictable with Colorado accruing a paltry 238 total yards and 15 first downs while Oregon State controlled the ball for 36 minutes of gametime and pressured a beleaguered Shedeur Sanders 18 times. Believe it or not, that was actually an improvement from the week prior, when UCLA battered Shedeur with 24 pressures and six sacks, while Sanders apparently took a pain shot in order to complete the game. He clearly looked impaired by the end of the game against Oregon State, which is a problem this week considering Colorado hosts a surging Arizona.

HC Jedd Fisch has ushered in a new era of respectability in the wake of the ill-fated Kevin Sumlin era, leading Arizona to three straight wins over Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA. They also posted a 77% win expectancy against USC, as AZ has been on a heater against the upper echelon programs of the soon to be defunct Pac-12. Colorado is not going to be able to stop the Wildcats’ lethal combo of QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan, who were teammates at Servite HS in Anaheim, CA. The Buffs can’t block anyone with their makeshift offensive line that has been overrun in recent weeks, and QB Sanders is already compromised injury-wise. I think Arizona takes it to Colorado this week and easily covers this 10.5 line that is almost assuredly going to increase as the week progresses.

LSU returned the second-most offensive production in the country this year (88%) and the results have been a success by any reasonable measure. The Tigers rank 3rd in points per game (42 PPG), 1st in yards per play (8.2), 4th in success rate (55%) and 1st overall in EPA/Play, with QB Jayden Daniels mounting a Heisman-worthy campaign. Daniels exited their Saturday game against Alabama following a hit from LB Dallas Turner with concussion symptoms, and is currently in the protocol. Here are HC Brian Kelly’s comments about Daniels’ playing status:

“He’s going through the injury protocol. And he’s made improvements. But this is a process that we’ll just have to, you know, see how it plays out from day to day, but I can tell you that he’s made some progress.”

As good as LSU’s offense is, their defense is the bizarro-world inverse of it, ranking 132nd in defensive EPA, 116th in yards per play (6.3) and 117th in success rate (45.4%). Florida’s defense is similarly susceptible, allowing 8.1 yards per pass (105th) and 6.3 yards per play (111th) while ranking 91st in EPA/Play. The Gators’ QB Graham Mertz has been far more effective than what he showed during his Wisconsin tenure and freshman WR Eugene Wilson is the highest graded first-year wideout according to PFF.

While I think there’s a very legitimate chance that Daniels plays, LSU backup QB Garrett Nussmeier is as credible a second-string QB in the nation. Florida is 6-3 to the Over while LSU is a perfect 9-0 clearing their weekly game total. I think the four-point drop from 67.5 to 63.5 on the game total is an overcorrection and am taking the Over 63.5 points against this combustible pair of defenses, no matter who takes snaps under center for the Tigers.

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Other Notable Line Movement

Alabama at Kentucky (+10.5) | 47.5 - Opened (+12) 51.5 CIRCA

BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Current)