Week 11 College Football Player Props Primer
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ole Miss at Georgia - Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
Judkins received considerable hype after his sensational freshman season and was regarded as the consensus co-number one 2025 NFL Draft running back alongside Penn State ball carrier Nicholas Singleton. However through the first four games of the 2023 season the explosive Ole Miss tailback failed to recapture the magic he displayed in 2022, failing to clear the 60 rush yards barrier in all four contests with a long rush of just 14 yards as he sustained an injury that limited his carries despite not missing a game.
His fortunes turned around in Week 5 against LSU when he ran for 177 yards on 33 totes, with Judkins kicking it into high gear and crossing the 100-yard mark in four of his last five games while averaging 22.4 rush attempts per game. Last week in a 30-21 victory over Missouri, Georgia allowed 112 rushing yards on 22 attempts to a far inferior RB in Cody Schrader. With Georgia ranking 31st in defensive rushing performance, I believe this line is overestimating the Dawgs and underestimating Ole Miss in regards to their rushing capabilities. I’m taking Judkins’ Over 69.5 Rushing Yardage prop on FanDuel.
Jerand Bradley, WR, Texas Tech at Kansas - Under 32.5 Receiving Yards
What happened to the nuclear passing offense that Texas Tech OC Zach Kittley unleashed on the world at Western Kentucky when Bailey Zappe threw for 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, both NCAA records? His Texas Tech iteration ranks just 60th nationally with an average of 238 passing yards per game, as the Red Raiders’ offense runs through their star RB Tahj Brooks, whose prop is currently listed at 114.5 rushing yards on FD.
Perhaps the injury to opening day starter Tyler Shough has tempered OC Kittley’s aerial assault, as current QB Behren Morton has cleared 180 passing yards just once all season. Though last week he threw for 283 yards against TCU’s easily dissected pass D that allows 7.5 yards per pass (72nd). Despite the rare passing explosion WR Jerand Bradley was barely involved in the game plan catching just one of three targets for 13 yards and a paltry 8.8% target share. He was overshadowed by reserve wideout Cody Eakin who worked the sideline like a season pro, reeling in all 8 passes thrown his way for 78 yards while leading the team in routes run with 27. Bradley’s lack of involvement is a continuation of a trend that saw him clear 32.5 Receiving Yards just once in his last 5 games with a long reception of 16 yards.
With Kansas ranking 101st in pace behind their devastating RB duo of Daniel Hishaw and Devin Neal, I think we see a run based affair which will serve to further erode Bradley’s impact. As a result, I am backing Bradley’s Under 32.5 Receiving Yards prop.
The boys will be breaking down all the games and answering your questions this Saturday morning on the NBC Sports College Football Betting Q&A at 10A Eastern. They’ll be taking sides and totals as well as placing a few bets for pizzas and roast beef sandwiches.
Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee at Missouri - Over 67.5 Rushing Yards | ALT 110+ Rushing Yards = +320
This might be the most puzzling line i’ve seen this week, as Jaylen Wright has clearly overtaken last year’s RB1 Jabari Small who has justifiably been relegated to the short yardage role he is best suited for. I was fortunate to pile up several shares of Wright in my preseason College Fantasy Football drafts and have been reaping the benefits. Besides a four carry off-day in a blowout of G5 opponent UTSA (45-14), Wright has only failed to clear 113 yards once in eight games, and that was a forgivable 11 carry, 22 yard performance against Alabama where he was used extensively in the receiving game catching 7-of-7 passes in the contest.
The Tennessee offense has abandoned it’s formerly pass-heavy game script in the wake of QB Hendon Hooker’s departure for the NFL, as current QB Joe Milton is a far cry from Hooker in terms of passing acumen. As a result, UT ranks 19th in rushing EPA and 37th in rushing success rate. They’re also facing a Missouri defense that checks in at 53rd in rushing EPA/Play, which further plays into Wright’s hands. With Wright clearing his 110+ ALT line in 7-of-9 games this year, i’m not only calling for an Over play on his 67.5 rushing yardage prop, but also his 110+ yard ALT line that is currently sitting at a delicious +320. Get it now, because there’s no way the books allow these lines to stand for much longer. Wright’s 67.5 Rushing Yardage line is my official Play of the Week and an unforgivable insult to the great Mr. Wright.
Jordan Waters, RB, Duke at North Carolina - Under 78.5 Rushing Yards
With co-starting RB Jaquez Moore on the mend for the first month of the season, Waters asserted himself as the top Blue Devils tailback, scoring nine touchdowns in his first six games while rushing for at least 60 yards in four of them. That being said Moore has returned to form and has taken over as the most dynamic Blue Devils RB, rushing for 75+ yards in two of the last three games, with the lone exception being a 23-0 embarrassment at the hands of Louisville’s fifth ranked defense.
Even without Moore in the fold, Waters has only hit 79 yards twice in nine games, with his production profile being boosted by his penchant for cashing in touchdowns. Both times he cleared 78.5 rushing yards were in lopsided victories against FCS opponent Lafayette (112 yards on 11 carries) and NC State (24-3). Now with Moore back in action, Waters has been relegated to the 1B rusher to Moore’s 1A. With Duke playing against UNC’s high-powered offense that averages 36.6 PPG (12th), and Duke struggling to score points in the absence of QB Riley Leonard, we can expect the Blue Devils’ RB tandem to face a steady stream of stacked boxes until UNC gets up by 2 scores, at which point they will need to air it out to help make up ground. Too many outliers need to happen for Waters to hit his 78.5 Rushing Yards mark, so i’m advocating for an Under play here.
