Week 5 NFL picks, odds and best bets

Welp, I finally lost a best bet on an NFL side in this space. The Washington Commanders played a gritty game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, rallying in the fourth quarter to force overtime with a last-second touchdown and extra point. Philadelphia (my pick) eventually carried the day, winning, 34-31, and potentially covering the spread on one of the alternative Earths in the multiverse, but unfortunately not this one, where it was favored by more than a touchdown. Elsewhere, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins threw a four-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson midway through the second quarter and a 30-yard strike to Jefferson at the end of the third quarter to cash the over 1½ touchdowns prop. You like that? Cousins now has at least two touchdown passes in all four games this season, even though Minnesota is 1-3.

The point spread for last week’s final pick — the look-ahead line on the Week 5 London game, featuring the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars — has floated up from Bills -4½ to Bills -5½, giving some value to anyone who pounced on the line at this time last week. We’re still rooting for that line to cross over the key number of seven, bringing significant value, but we can already take heart in the fact that the market is trending in our direction.

Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds. Regarding player props, generally speaking, the public takes overs early in the week, while professional bettors wait until closer to game time to bet an under.

Bye week: Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers