West Ham vs Brentford Odds & Picks

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26 February 2024

West Ham and Brentford are both stuck in a midseason lull, as both teams are desperate for three points. With that said, our Premier League picks believe there's a world where neither teams walks away with a win tonight.

West Ham United hope to find their first win of 2024 when the Hammers play host to Brentford. Premier League odds have West Ham slightly favored to win at home.

David Moyes finds himself on the hot seat, as West Ham United have lost three straight matches by an 11-0 aggregate score line. The Hammers are winless in eight across all competitions since the calendar flipped over, and the absence of Lucas Paqueta has been a key reason why.

Brentford are happy to have striker Ivan Toney back in the fold, but they’ve lost four of the six matches since his return. They sit just five points clear of the drop zone, so picking up points against a struggling side will be a high priority.

My West Ham United vs Brentford Premier League picks for February 26 explain why both teams may yet again walk away without a victory.

West Ham vs Brentford best odds

EPL predictions for West Ham vs Brentford

West Ham haven’t been able to score a goal over their last three matches, and the absence of Lucas Paqueta has been a driving force. According to Opta, they’ve failed to win any of the seven matches he’s missed and are averaging less than a goal in those fixtures.

The addition of Kalvin Phillips from Manchester City has proven disastrous, as he’s not only failed to fill Paqueta’s shoes but has committed multiple errors leading to goals. However, he'll be suspended for this match, which may very well improve the midfield simply via addition by subtraction.

Paqueta has returned to training and should he be able to make the squad, it vastly improves the midfield for West Ham. That’s good news for their attack — especially against a Brentford side that have just one clean sheet in their last 17 fixtures.

Brentford have just one victory vs. four defeats in their last five matches, but it’s important to note two of those defeats came to Man City with another coming to Liverpool. And if this match were being played at home, I’d be backing Brentford to win.

But the Bees have just three wins and a draw from their 12 away fixtures in the Premier League, the last of which was the only victory in this recent run of poor form. It was a fortunate victory against a Wolves side that outshot Brentford 17-9 and failed to score.

Brentford will be missing multiple key players, including Bryan Mbeumo and Ethan Pinnock, which also will prevent them from fully taking advantage of West Ham’s poor form. But they have enough quality that I see them getting a result from this match.

The price of +260 that TonyBet is offering for a stalemate presents strong value. I’ll take advantage of it and bank on the two clubs finishing level after 90 minutes, with both clubs once likely regretting they weren’t able to take advantage of the other’s struggles.

My best bet: Draw (+260 at TonyBet)

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West Ham vs Brentford same-game parlay

DrawBrentford Over 4.5 shots on goal

Both teams to score

Eight of West Ham’s last nine opponents have put at least five shots on goal, and Brentford’s attack has been testing opposing keepers much more since Toney’s return. They’ve put at least five efforts on goal against every team other than Man City in their last seven outings, and I’ll back them to do it again here.

Neither defense is playing particularly well, and it’s hard to see either one keeping a clean sheet. Brentford have conceded in seven consecutive away league fixtures, but they’re also bagging goals away from home. West Ham’s conceded 11 goals in their last three fixtures, and will do so again here.

West Ham vs Brentford side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way line has shown minimal movement since the lines opened last week. West Ham are favored to win at home with a price of +150 on average, while the Bees are getting about +175. The draw is priced around +250 which makes the value at TonyBet even better.

We’ve already broken down the 3-way line as we’re backing the draw, but it’s worth noting Brentford have won five of the last six meetings between these two clubs since 2021.

The total of 2.5 goals is shaded towards the Over, but not nearly as much as we’ve seen in other recent Premier League outings. You can get the Over for about -133, as it’s actually come down over the past few days from around -145.

West Ham haven’t scored in their last three outings, but that hasn’t stopped two of them from easily going Over. However, six of their last eight matches at home have gone Under the 2.5 goal line. So have the last two away fixtures for Brentford, who limited Manchester City to just one goal in their last away tilt.

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West Ham vs Brentford game info

West Ham vs Brentford key injuries

West Ham: Lucas Paqueta M (Questionable), Kalvin Phillips M (Out).
Brentford: Rico Henry D (Out), Bryan Mbuemo M (Out), Ethan Pinnock D (Out).