What we learned: Locked's trip affects Breeders' Futurity margin

Locked made his graded-stakes debut a successful one in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, although he needed to work harder than expected late to get the job done over The Wine Steward in second. The wide trip affected Locked’s run and resulted in the close stretch battle.

Even though Locked did not blow away the runner-up, he deserves credit for running about four wide on the first turn from the outside post, and then running about four wide again when making his move on the far turn.

Note how Locked does not break alertly as the others and gets stuck in a bad position outside of the long shot Northern Flame heading into the first turn. West Saratoga ends up shifting out on the turn, which causes Northern Flame to shift out too and come into Locked’s way a little bit.

Also notice The Wine Steward, who saves all the ground from the rail post. He ends up sticking to the inside position while traveling around mid-pack on the far side.

When they straighten out onto the far side, Locked settles into a back position outside of Awesome Road near the rear. The 89-1 long shot Baytown Chatterbox led the field through an opening quarter in 24.47 seconds, while the 16-1 Just Steel soon took over and hit the half-mile in 48.23 seconds.

On the far turn, The Wine Steward found himself in front after navigating through the inside paths to make his move. Once in the lead, The Wine Steward had to face the oncoming Locked, who went four wide in his bid after traveling wide throughout the far side and came into the stretch run looking as though he would blow away The Wine Steward.

But surprisingly, Locked and The Wine Steward ended up battling each other closely into the short stretch. After the two of them got close to each other in an intense fight, Locked began to gain the advantage toward the wire and won the race by half a length over The Wine Steward, who had the benefit of saving ground on both of the turns.

Generous Tipper closed for third about four lengths behind Locked, and Northern Flame settled for fourth after also running wide on both turns.

Locked completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.06, which resulted in an 87 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form and 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Although those numbers might seem mild, keep in mind that speed figures do not take into account a wide trip, and Locked went four wide in this race on both turns. Wide trips usually affect the final race time. 

Given the trip, Locked has a better speed figure inside him. But it is unclear whether any value exists to this opinion from a betting standpoint, as the public will most likely forgive him for this effort and still bet Locked. 

As Locked's 7 1/4-length maiden romp at Saratoga and accompanying 96 Beyer Figure shows, this colt owns serious raw talent. But no matter what kind of talent a horse owns, jumping from a maiden win to a Grade 1 stakes race never comes easy. 

Odds and value aside, Locked will benefit from his experience in the Breeders' Futurity when he competes in future graded stakes. 

The Wine Steward took a step forward in giving Locked a battle in the stretch and losing by half a length. If the connections decide to go for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, The Wine Steward deserves a shot. But if Locked enters too, keep in mind that Locked is more than likely better than The Wine Steward.

With that said, the odds will reflect the difference. Since Locked will remain a short price in the Breeders’ Cup if he points there, The Wine Steward might look like a value option, depending on his live odds.

Generous Tipper could make noise in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile if he joins the above two runners at Santa Anita. Although a minor check seems like Generous Tipper’s ceiling if he runs there, the experience might help harden him up before he runs in the rest of the Derby trail.

Northern Flame gave the best effort of his career to finish fourth. On Aug. 28, this colt lost by 10 lengths to Generous Tipper in a maiden race at Ellis Park. In this race, he lost third to Generous Tipper by a head.

Locked’s trip gives him a pass this time for the mild figure and hard-fought win over a seemingly lesser opponent. But keep in mind that the public will bet this colt wherever he goes because of his flashy maiden win and the familiar Todd Pletcher training him. Regardless, the sky remains the limit for Locked.