White Sox vs. Astros prediction: Back Houston on the 5-inning run line
The last time Cristian Javier was on the mound in a baseball game that mattered, the Houston Astros pitcher kick-started a combined no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the World Series.
Javier covered the first six innings of the no-no, allowing just two walks while striking out nine as Houston cruised to a 5-0 victory.
That capped a 2022 postseason in which Javier yielded just one run (a solo homer) and two hits across 12 2/3 innings. And that followed a near-perfect end to the regular season in which the right-hander allowed a total of six hits and zero runs in four starts spanning 17 innings.
Add it all up and Javier has surrendered a single run and eight hits in his last 29 2/3 innings on the bump.
So only a fool would bet against Javier in his season debut Friday at home against the Chicago White Sox. Well, we’re not fools (at least not in this instance). We’re backing Javier and the Astros — but not to win the game.
Odds updated as of 1:15 p.m. ET on March 31.
White Sox vs. Astros Prediction
Astros -0.5 runs (-105), first 5 innings run line (at Caesars Sportsbook)
White Sox vs. Astros Prediction: Analysis
Javier took the mound nine times last season from Aug. 31 through Game 4 of the World Series. Houston’s record in those games: 9-0.
So it’s tempting to play the Astros on the regular 9-inning moneyline. Why the hesitation? Because Javier doesn’t pitch deep into games, and because Houston’s three best relievers threw a total of 48 pitches in Thursday’s 3-2 Opening Day loss to Chicago.
With this being Game 2 of 162, it’s highly unlikely that those three pitchers — Hector Nerris, Rafael Montero and closer Ryan Pressly — will be available Friday.
So we recommend taking the bullpen guesswork out of the equation and betting Javier and the Astros on the 5-inning run line.
Javier pitched between five and six innings in 14 of his final 15 starts last season (playoffs included). So if he’s efficient with his pitches — and, of course, effective — the 26-year-old Dominican should get through five innings Friday.
He’ll be facing a White Sox lineup that scratched out 11 hits on Opening Day but didn’t cross home plate until the eighth inning.
To be fair, the Astros didn’t score until the seventh inning and managed just four hits for the game. But they had to deal with Chicago ace Dylan Cease, the 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up.
Cease was masterful Thursday night. He gave up a leadoff single in the bottom of the first, then retired 19 consecutive batters (10 on strikeouts).
We expect Houston’s lineup to have a much easier go of it Friday against veteran Lance Lynn. The right-hander followed up a solid 2021 campaign (11-6, 2.69 ERA) with a mediocre 2022 (8-7, 3.99 ERA).
Lynn, who turns 36 in six weeks, actually missed the first 2½ months of 2022 with an injury. But when he finally did step on the mound, he struggled, posting a 7.50 ERA in his first seven starts.
If the Astros can get to Lynn for just a couple of early runs Friday, they should get through five innings with a lead. After all, Javier gave up just a run on two hits and four walks in five innings in his lone start against the White Sox last year.
The score after five innings in that contest: Houston 4, Chicago 1.
First 5 Innings
Moneyline: White Sox (+120) @ Astros (-150)
Run Line: White Sox +0.5 (-125) @ Astros -0.5 (-105)
Total: 4 runs (Over -105/Under -125)
Full Game
Moneyline: White Sox (+122) @ Astros (-145)
Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (-170) @ Astros -1.5 (+143)
Total: 7.5 runs (Over -115/Under -105)
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