Blue Jays picks and props vs. White Sox July 6: Back Berrios to deliver in first game of doubleheader

BOOST: Berrios to record 18+ outs & 6+ strikeouts (+315, was +260). Click here to bet

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox will play a doubleheader Thursday after last night’s rainout.

The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios gets the ball for the first game, which starts at 5:10 p.m. ET, and we’re expecting him to deliver a strong outing for Toronto against the White Sox’s unimposing offence.

Check out how we’re backing Berrios in our Blue Jays picks for the July 6 game at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.

MLB odds as of 1:31 p.m. ET on 07/06/2023.

Best Bet: Berrios over 17.5 outs (-130)

Berrios failed to clear this line in his first three outings of the season and sported an ERA of 5.29 after six starts. While his results were looking very much like they did last season, they have been anything but since.

The right-hander has a 2.96 ERA over his last 11 starts, working at least six innings eight times, including five of his six outings in June.

He gets a favourable matchup tonight, giving us plenty of optimism for his outlook on this pitching prop.

On top of Chicago’s underwhelming offence, the Blue Jays have Yusei Kikuchi pitching the second half of the doubleheader, which typically means the bullpen needs to work overtime.

As long as Berrios is keeping Toronto in this contest, which we believe he will, the Blue Jays will be incentivized to ride him deeper into this game to keep their bullpen arms fresh. Kikuchi has failed to complete more than five innings in eight of his last 10 starts.

Here’s how Chicago has fared against righties this season in a number of key offensive categories:

Key stat: Berrios has topped this number in 10 of 17 starts this season, including an April outing against the White Sox (seven innings).

Quick picks

Berrios over 4.5 Ks (-121): These picks work off each other. Berrios’ ability to go deep will provide him with extra opportunities to pile up punchouts.

The White Sox also have plenty of swing and miss in their profile, fanning at the 11th-highest rate in MLB versus righties.

Berrios topped this line in four of his June starts and is coming off back-to-back games with eight strikeouts. On the season, he has punched out five-plus batters in 12 of 17 starts.

When Berrios faced the White Sox earlier this season, he fanned a season-high nine batters.

Blue Jays ML (-121): A big Berrios outing would go a long way for Toronto’s chances of winning this game. Because we are expecting him to be in good form, we also like Toronto at this moneyline price.

The White Sox are 13 games under .500 and only five teams in baseball average fewer runs per game. Expecting their pitching to bail them out is a lot to ask of, too, with Lance Lynn getting the ball.

Lynn has been hammered hard this year, taking an unsightly 6.47 ERA into the start. He has allowed five-plus runs in four of his last six starts.

Toronto is 8-4 in Berrios’ last 12 starts.