Who Will Advance to the Eastern Conference Playoffs?

A spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs is on the line, when the Miami Heat welcome the Atlanta Hawks to town on Tuesday. Read on for our Hawks vs. Heat prediction for their NBA play-in tournament matchup based on the best NBA odds.

The 2023 NBA play-in tournament begins with a showdown between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. The winner will earn an opening-round series with the second-seeded Boston Celtics, with Game 1 slated to take place Saturday afternoon. The loser will have one more chance to make the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

Miami (44-38) faced Atlanta (41-41) four times this season, with the former team coming away with three victories. The Heat earned back-to-back wins over the Hawks in early March, both of which were by single digits at home. Can Miami pick up another win as the betting favorite?

Here is our best Hawks vs. Heat prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Hawks vs. Heat prediction

Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 3-pointers (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Heat will go as far as Jimmy Butler can take them this postseason. That has certainly been the case during recent playoff runs, including last year when Miami lost to the Celtics in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Butler could help give his team a rematch with Boston in the opening round by knocking down at least one 3-pointer against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Hawks allow 33.5 3-point attempts per game, which ranks 16th in the league.

Butler averaged 27.4 points per game during the postseason last year, knocking down 1.4 3-pointers on four attempts per contest. He hit at least one triple in 14 of the 17 playoff games last summer.

During an opening-round series against the Hawks last year, Butler went 7-for-16 from long range and canned at least one 3-pointer in all four games. This season, he drilled two 3-pointers on as many attempts across three meetings with Atlanta.

Butler’s scoring prop has been set as high as 28.5 at PointsBet, so it is difficult to find value in the obvious markets for him. But we like his chances of connecting on at least one long ball to help the Heat secure the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

Hawks vs. Heat best odds

DraftKings (-120)

All five of our best NBA betting sites are in agreement on where this line should be set for this particular player prop. We can save a few cents by placing this at DraftKings or BetMGM, both of which are offering the Over at -120 as of Monday evening. 

We chose DraftKings because the Over is actually priced at -115 under the same-game parlay tab. A two-leg parlay of Butler to hit a 3-pointer and the Heat to win is priced at +175, for those looking for a juicier payout.

While a parlay does help offer boosted odds, we would play this straight bet at anything -130 or better. If you are feeling really bold, FanDuel is offering a +400 price on Butler to finish with two or more 3-pointers.

Hawks vs. Heat odds

Hawks vs. Heat odds analysis

The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the line is down to 5 and 4.5 at most of our best sportsbooks. The total has dropped down to 226.5, which is two full points lower than the opening line of 228.5.

During the regular season, Atlanta went 36-46 against the spread and 46-35-1 to the Over. Miami went 31-49-2 ATS with a 41-41 split on totals.

Hawks vs. Heat game info

• Date: Tuesday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Hawks-Heat pick made 04/10/2023 at 5:45 p.m. ET.

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