Why Knicks are good bet to overachieve in NBA regular season
The NBA season tips off in less than a week. The NBA title will be awarded eight months later.
Too often, too much focus is placed on who will finish on top. In the NBA, it makes even less sense to look at the league through a narrow all-or-nothing lens.
Unlike other professional leagues, the champion always emerges from the elite. Only two of the 77 NBA champions were not top-three seeds and both outliers were defending champions led by legends (’69 Celtics, ’95 Rockets).
I’d put a mortgage payment on one of four teams (Nuggets, Celtics, Bucks, Suns) taking home this season’s title. I’d listen to arguments for the Lakers and Warriors. That’s it. That’s the list. And that’s OK.
The belief that a championship defines everything has contributed to the attitude that the regular season doesn’t mean anything. Commissioner Adam Silver has taken an unnecessary bold step to elevate the sleepiest part of the schedule by introducing an In-Season Tournament, but some teams don’t need extra incentives to show up when they’re supposed to — especially those coached by Tom Thibodeau.
The Knicks enter this season with their greatest expectations in a decade, featuring a young and hungry core that has lots to prove and lots of room for improvement. It is a team that received a wake-up call in its losing campaign in 2021-22 following a playoff berth.
It is a team that now has one of the steadiest and most determined players in the league (Jalen Brunson), that has a coach who loathes load management and asks more from his best players than any other coach.
It is a team that won 47 games last season and added a spark in Donte DiVincenzo, a team that traded for Josh Hart and went 17-8 in the regular season with him in action, a team whose off shooting nights can be negated by some of the game’s best offensive rebounders.
The Knicks may not be ready to run with the elite, but much has changed in the past two years.
This season, there will be no regression. This regular season will be worth watching because it will be everything fans could have hoped to enjoy for most of the past two decades. Prediction: Over 45.5 wins
As for the other 29 teams …
Nets: The short-lived superstar era is over and Brooklyn is back to where it was before the Durant-Irving-Harden fever dream, relying on a collection of young and intriguing pieces to be greater than the sum of the parts. Led by Mikal Bridges, defense should be a constant, but the Nets could struggle to find consistent scoring, shooting and rebounding. Prediction: Under 37.5 wins
Bucks: The addition of Damian Lillard makes Milwaukee a top-tier title contender again, but it sacrificed depth and defense to make Giannis Antetokounmpo happy. Prediction: Under 54.5 wins
Celtics: In crunch time, no team will feel more comfortable to have any of its starters holding the ball. Though Boston’s bench got shorter, its title chances only increased after trading for Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Coach Joe Mazzulla can’t be any worse in Year 2. I think. Prediction: Over 54.5 wins
Nuggets: The 2015-16 Warriors are the most recent reigning champion to improve upon their win total from the prior season. The Nuggets were dominant in a 16-3 postseason run after Nikola Jokic and Co. took it easy in the final month, finishing with 53 wins. The regular season only gets tougher — and less important — for teams trying to repeat. Prediction: Under 53.5 wins
Suns: A team with suspect depth is banking on three players (Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal) to carry it to a title. It could happen. But history says the injury-prone stars won’t spend much of the season playing together. Prediction: Under 51.5 wins
Cavaliers: Forget how the 51-win team flopped in the first round against the Knicks. Three of its top four players (Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen) are 25 or younger. Donovan Mitchell is in his prime. And the Cavaliers will be even more dangerous from outside after adding Max Strus and Georges Niang. Prediction: Over 50.5 wins
76ers: Their title window has closed without one appearance in the conference finals. However the James Harden drama unfolds, Joel Embiid will have less reason to remain in Philadelphia. Prediction: Under 49.5 wins
Lakers: LeBron James will soon turn 39. Anthony Davis has played an average of 44 games the past three seasons. Last season’s deep playoff run only increases the odds of another absence-filled campaign. Prediction: Under 47.5 wins
Warriors: Golden State couldn’t go 11-30 on the road again if it tried. Chris Paul is an upgrade from Jordan Poole. Klay Thompson is in a contract year. Gary Payton II is back for the start of the season. And Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins are a safe bet to combine for more than the 93 games they played last season. Prediction: Over 47.5 wins
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard has averaged 40 games per season since coming home. Paul George has averaged 47 games in the same four disappointing seasons. They’re not getting any younger. And their team isn’t any better equipped to win 47 games for the first time since 2019-20. Prediction: Under 46.5 wins
Grizzlies: Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension isn’t a death sentence. Memphis is 33-17 over the past two seasons without its star guard. Prediction: Over 45.5 wins
Heat: He’s called “Playoff Jimmy” for a reason. No one will doubt this team come the postseason, but the Heat — who finished last season ranked 21st in point differential — have taken some hits since their improbable Finals run, losing Strus, Gabe Vincent and the opportunity to land Lillard. Prediction: Under 45.5 wins
Kings: The stock is still pointing up on last season’s biggest surprise. Four starters (De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter) from the 48-win team are 27 or younger. Prediction: Over 44.5 wins
Pelicans: New Orleans is talented enough to make a deep run in the postseason. But it isn’t possible without Zion Williamson — who has played an average of 28.5 games per season — at full strength. Prediction: Under 44.5 wins
Thunder: This talented core has the potential to steal a playoff spot with Chet Holmgren joining Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. But it’s rare to see the league’s trendiest breakthrough pick arrive on time. Prediction: Under 44.5 wins
Timberwolves: An extra 40 to 50 games from Karl-Anthony Towns — who was limited to 29 games last season — should be enough for a three-win improvement. A leap from future superstar Anthony Edwards, 22, could allow Minnesota to reach 50 wins for the first time in 20 years. Prediction: Over 44.5 wins
Mavericks: Rather than admit a mistake in trading for Kyrie Irving, Dallas bid against itself and gave $126 million to the most unreliable talent in the league. Even if Irving spends most of the season on the court, his pairing with Luka Doncic still makes little sense, giving the Mavericks two of the players with the highest usage rates of all time. The Mavericks — whose defense ranked 25th in the league last season — went 5-11 with Doncic and Irving playing together. Prediction: Under 43.5 wins
Hawks: Quin Snyder made a curious decision to join Atlanta mid-season, but the veteran coach — with a career .581 win percentage — will make his mark with a full season on the bench. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray haven’t come close to reaching their potential together. Prediction: Over 41.5 wins
Pacers: Indiana was a .500 team with soon-to-be superstar Tyrese Haliburton in the lineup last season. The favorite to lead the league in assists this season will make the Pacers even better this season with Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown running the floor. Prediction: Over 38.5 wins
Bulls: Chicago is bringing back its mediocre core for another run. Another sub-.500 season is ahead in an improved Eastern Conference. Prediction: Under 37.5 wins
Magic: They made the biggest leap in the East last season, improving by 12 games after winning 29 of their final 57 games. It will be tougher to jump another tier to the Play-In Tournament with the expectations thrust upon this young and unproven roster, led by reigning Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and 22-year-old Franz Wagner. Prediction: Under 37.5 wins
Raptors: You pay a tax when you bet on teams such as the Yankees, Lakers and Cowboys. The NBA’s only Canadian team — featuring Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and O.G. Anunoby — offers a discount to those backing this overlooked roster. Prediction: Over 36.5 wins
Jazz: Utah greatly exceeded expectations last season, but collapsed down the stretch and finished with 37 wins. Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler won’t have enough help from the backcourt or the element of surprise. Prediction: Under 35.5 wins
Hornets: The Hornets won 43 games two seasons ago, when LaMelo Ball played 75 games. They won 27 last season with their star limited to 36 games. Back at full strength, Ball, 22, will only be better with No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller by his side. Prediction: Over 31.5 wins
Rockets: Houston’s young talent finally has direction with Ime Udoka leading a team for the first time since his Finals trip in Boston. Veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks bring much-needed confidence and experience. Prediction: Over 31.5 wins
Spurs: The list of high-profile rookie big men who’ve instantly transformed teams is long. The Magic improved by 15 wins with rookie Dwight Howard. Wilt Chamberlain led a 17-win improvement. Embiid helped add 18 wins. Hakeem Olajuwon was good for 19. Shaquille O’Neal was responsible for nearly doubling Orlando’s 21-win total in 1991-92. Wes Unseld was Rookie of the Year and MVP, leading Washington to 21 more wins. Elvin Hayes was the reason Houston added 22. Lew Alcindor carried the Bucks to 29 more wins. David Robinson lifted San Antonio to 35 more wins. Tim Duncan elevated the Spurs to 36 more wins. If Victor Wembanyama is the best prospect in two decades, the Frenchman should be able to lead San Antonio to an eight-win improvement. Prediction: Over 29.5 wins
Trail Blazers: Don’t underestimate Portland because it moved on from Lillard. The Trail Blazers still have plenty of playmakers with rookie Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons while the acquisitions of Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams — Malcolm Brogdon may also remain on the roster — and the $160 million signing of Jerami Grant mean this team isn’t set up to bottom out. Prediction: Over 28.5 wins
Pistons: Detroit is due for a jump after a 17-win campaign — former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham played 12 games last season — but inexperience, fit and frontcourt production will remain problems for the rebuilding franchise. Prediction: Under 27.5 wins
Wizards: The tank is coming one year too late, but they don’t have a better path back to relevance. Prediction: Under 24.5 wins
Today’s back page
Gray cloud for Liberty’s foes
The Liberty will try to save their season — again — Wednesday night in Brooklyn in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals and force their series with the Aces back to Las Vegas for a deciding Game 5.
Though no team in WNBA Finals history ever has come back to win the title after facing a 2-0 series deficit, the Liberty’s odds improved when Aces star point guard Chelsea Gray suffered what appeared to be a significant left foot injury during Las Vegas’ loss in Game 3.
On Tuesday, the Aces ruled out last year’s WNBA Finals MVP — who ranked third in the league in assists this season — for Game 4, and the wait to announce her status for a potential Game 5 may be mere gamesmanship.
The reigning champs are not a deep team. Four players — including Gray, who is averaging 15.6 points and 6.8 assists in the playoffs — account for more than 85 percent of the Aces’ postseason scoring. (Their fifth starter, defense-first center Kiah Stokes, also was ruled out for Game 4 due to a foot injury, forcing a pair of reserves into the starting lineup.)
The Liberty, who were led by Jonquel Jones’ 27 points in Sunday’s 87-73 win, have won all three home games against the Aces this season by an average of more than 20 points per game.
If necessary, Game 5 would take place Friday night in Las Vegas, where the Liberty have lost four of five games this season. New York’s lone win earned the team the Commissioner’s Cup championship in August.
Max to grind
Max Scherzer has another chance.
Though Scherzer was expected to miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury, the three-time Cy Young Award winner will return to the mound for the first time since Sept. 12 when he starts Game 3 of the ALCS Wednesday night in Texas, as the Rangers attempt to take a 3-0 series lead over the Astros.
It will be Scherzer’s first postseason appearance since his lone such start with the Mets last year, when he surrendered four home runs and seven runs in the wild-card round against the Padres.
“He’s ready,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said Tuesday. “That’s why he’s starting Game 3.”
In a series that started with former Mets (and Tigers) teammate Justin Verlander giving up Houston’s home-field advantage, Scherzer, 39, can essentially bury the defending champs.
In his most recent meeting with the Astros on Sept. 6, Scherzer — who went 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA after being traded by the Mets — allowed seven runs over three innings. Scherzer also faced the Astros twice in the 2019 World Series, going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA as the Nationals captured their first championship.
Now, Scherzer can put the Rangers one win from the World Series.
The scoreboard
Phillies 10, Diamondbacks 0: The Phillies continue to hit dingers — one for Trea Turner, two for Kyle Schwarber — and snowball toward the World Series. Aaron Nola was excellent, too.
Celtics 123, Knicks 110 (preseason): Quentin Grimes scored 22 points as most of the Knicks’ key pieces sat out this tuneup in Boston.
Islanders 1, Coyotes 0: Ilya Sorokin was asked to make just 14 saves in a shutout as the Isles (2-0-0) stayed perfect.
What we’re reading
�� A panel of doctors weigh in on the possibility of Aaron Rodgers returning to the Jets this season — and the risks involved.
�� The Post’s Mike Vaccaro with a beauty on Rick Pitino, attempting to pull off at St. John’s what he managed with the Knicks 36 years ago.
⚾ Jacob deGrom spoke with The Post’s Joel Sherman about his Mets exit, his recovery from Tommy John surgery and the agony of being a spectator for this Rangers playoff run.
⚾ A good look at Mets manager candidates beyond the expected front-runner Craig Counsell.
�� What kind of pressure is Donte DiVincenzo feeling to live up to his $50 million Knicks deal?
⚽ Gio Reyna delivered two goals for the United States men’s national team in a jubilant 4-0 win over Ghana.
