With three first-round picks in 2024 MLB draft, Orioles set up to achieve sustainable success
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — In early July, the Orioles were among the American League’s best teams and had just promoted two top 100 prospects to a roster that would soon send four players to the All-Star Game.
Times were good in Baltimore, and after the Orioles selected three players in the first two rounds of the MLB draft, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias provided the one downside to the club’s prospect success.
“We’re promoting so many of these guys, I’m starting to worry about our farm system ranking,” he said jokingly.
Well, maybe Elias can have his cake and eat it, too.
The winter meetings on Tuesday provided further proof that Elias and company’s model for sustainable success is working like a well-oiled machine. After ending the regular season as the AL’s best team, the Orioles will somehow have three first-round picks — yes, three — in the 2024 draft after the order was announced by MLB.
The Orioles can’t maintain the sport’s top-ranked farm system while also being a playoff contender, especially after consensus top prospect Jackson Holliday is likely promoted and graduates from such status in 2024, presumably along with a few others in the system. But Baltimore owning three picks between Nos. 22 and 34 in next summer’s MLB draft after ending the preceding regular season as the AL’s best team is nothing short of miraculous — and fortuitous.
“I can promise you it will not dry up,” Elias said of the Orioles’ prospect pipeline Tuesday at the MLB winter meetings. “We’re going to be a first-rate scouting and player development organization as long as the people that are in this room are here being in charge of that. Whether that’s top 10 or 11th one year or something, I don’t know. But I can point to other franchises that … you know they do a good job in scouting and player development, it’s just part of their identity. I think that’s the Orioles.”
Where the Orioles are selecting in the 2024 draft is thanks, in part, to a few of their profligate counterparts, Gunnar Henderson’s stellar rookie season and the league’s competitive balance measures.
MLB held its draft lottery Tuesday evening, and the Orioles weren’t involved after making the postseason. However, they still moved up two spots from their original placement of No. 24 thanks to the San Diego Padres and New York Yankees each dropping 10 spots, below the Orioles, because of luxury tax penalties.
Nothing like robbing Brian Cashman to pay Mike Elias.
“That’s a pretty high pick coming off a 100-win season,” Elias said matter-of-factly, but with a hint of satisfaction in his voice.
Ten picks later, the Orioles are on the board again at No. 32 as their reward for Henderson winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award. The 2022 collective bargaining agreement instituted measures to curb service-time manipulation by providing incentives for teams to promote well-regarded prospects. In Henderson’s case, he started the season on the Orioles’ opening day roster, and since he accrued a full year of service in 2023, Baltimore is receiving a prospect promotion incentive (PPI) pick at the end of the first round.
Henderson was drafted with the 42nd pick in the 2019 draft, and because of his success, the Orioles have the opportunity to draft the next Gunnar Henderson.
Two picks later, after the Twins use the compensation pick they received for pitcher Sonny Gray signing elsewhere in free agency, the Orioles will have the first pick in Competitive Balance Round A at No. 34.
As part of the league’s push for competitive balance, teams that have either one of the 10 smallest markets or revenue pools receive an additional pick at the end of the first or second rounds. While not officially the first round, Competitive Balance Round A comes before the second round and players selected there are considered by Baseball-Reference as first-round picks.
The round in which eligible teams are placed alternates each year; Baltimore picked in Competitive Balance Round B in 2023. As long as the Orioles remain eligible, they will gain an extra selection at the end of the first round in even-numbered years and at the end of the second round in odd-numbered years. Even better, these picks are ordered by winning percentage to incentivize competing, so the Orioles (.623) have the first pick in the round, while the Kansas City Royals (.346) will have the last one.
“We’ll take all the picks MLB wants to give us,” Elias said. “We need ’em. I mean, you look at the finances, there’s a lot of disparity in baseball and there’s a lot of markets that have been identified as ones that should receive competitive balance picks, and we’re one of ‘em.
“I think it’s an important lifeblood if you’re Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore. So we appreciate that part of the system, and honestly, I’d like to see it be more because that’s a drop in the bucket, I think, compared to some of the market disparities that we have.”
It’s paramount to note this doesn’t mean the team can’t or shouldn’t invest in the product on the field by increasing payroll. Baltimore has ranked near the bottom of the sport in spending during Elias’ tenure, and now that the Orioles are no longer rebuilding, expecting to remain competitive in the AL East with a puny payroll is a perilous pursuit. It also doesn’t mean Elias should avoid trading prospects for sensible major league upgrades, as the Orioles are in need of a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher and a back-end reliever.
However, maintaining a healthy farm system is vital for any organization eyeing sustainable success, especially one in a smaller market. It’s even more vital in the AL East — the sport’s best division that boasts a mega market in New York, two large markets in Boston and Toronto and a small-market juggernaut in Tampa Bay.
“Baltimore, for everything they’ve done as far as position players, their pitching, it’s really good,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “It started at the end of ’21, and they’ve done an amazing job putting structure and maximizing their talent. There’s some good players in the minor league system that we will see next year.”
“Baltimore, they’re the best team in the division,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “They’re not going anywhere. The youth that they’ve built up, and they’ve had a taste of success.”
For a rebuild to succeed, a team has to hit on its top picks. The Orioles certainly did so with Adley Rutschman, and it appears they did so with Holliday, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, although their futures aren’t as clear as Rutschman’s. But a strong system is built on far more than just those players, as four of the Orioles’ top eight prospects who were draft picks were selected between No. 30 in Competitive Balance Round A and No. 108 in the fourth round.
The Orioles drafted Henderson, outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Joey Ortiz with picks Nos. 42, 71 and 108, respectively, in 2019. In 2020, they selected second baseman Jordan Westburg in Competitive Balance Round A and corner infielder Coby Mayo in the fourth round. Second baseman Connor Norby was a second-round pick in 2021, while outfielders Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian were picked with Competitive Balance Round picks in 2022.
“I’ve been very proud of the outcomes that we’ve gotten on these drafts and development projects the last five or six years,” Elias said. “It’s been critical. If we’d done anything less, I’m not sure we’d be in this position. It’s been the driving factor of our having a successful rebuild.”
It might also be how they prevent another one.
Orioles 2024 draft picks
No. 22 (First round)
No. 32 (Prospect Promotion Incentive)
No. 34 (Competitive Balance Round A)
