World Series Game 3: Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
After splitting the first two games in Texas, the 2023 World Series shifts to Arizona for Games 3-5 this week. The Diamondbacks will host their first World Series game since 2001 on Monday when the Rangers come to town.
Texas will send three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer to the mound, who’s been shaky in the playoffs since returning from a shoulder injury. Arizona will counter with rookie Brandon Pfaadt in his World Series debut.
Game Details
- Matchup: Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Monday, Oct. 30
- Time: 7:03 p.m. CST / 8:03 p.m. EST
- Location: Chase Field (Phoenix)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Rangers -112, Diamondbacks -104
- Runline: Rangers -1.5 (+140), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170)
- Total: Over/Under 9 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Last Time Out
The Diamondbacks bounced back in Game 2 after blowing Game 1 in the ninth inning, routing the Rangers 9-1. The score was 2-1 heading into the seventh inning before Arizona erupted for seven runs over the final innings, easily clinching its first World Series game victory in over 20 years.
Tommy Pham led the way for the Diamondbacks, racking up four of the team’s 16 hits. He became just the 18th player in World Series history to go 4-for-4 in a game.
Meanwhile, Texas managed just four hits in Game 2 as the bats went cold.
Moneyline
Despite being on the road and coming off a lopsided loss in Game 2, the Rangers opened as slight moneyline favorites for Game 3.
Scherzer hasn’t looked like his Hall of Famer self. The 39-year-old has been roughed up in both playoff starts, finishing the ALCS with a 9.45 ERA and a 7.16 FIP in 6 ⅔ innings. He only lasted 2 ⅔ innings in Game 7 and might be on a short leash here.
Pfaadt, on the other hand, has stepped up his game in October after an underwhelming regular season. The 25-year-old righty went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this year but has been sharp in the postseason, logging a 2.70 ERA and a 22:3 K/BB ratio in 16 ⅔ innings. Not surprisingly, Arizona is 4-0 in his starts.
It will be tough for him to keep it up in Game 3, as Texas has one of the best offenses in baseball. The Rangers led the American League in scoring during the regular season at 5.44 runs per game and have been even more prolific in the playoffs, averaging 5.57 runs.
Texas is also undefeated on the road in the postseason, going 8-0 away from Globe Life Field. The Rangers’ ability to rise to the occasion on the road negates potential home-field advantage for the Diamondbacks.
Scherzer has fared well in the World Series (1-0 and 3.86 ERA in three starts), so it’s safer to trust the more experienced hurler and better offense in this spot.
Pick: Rangers moneyline
Runline
Texas is the runline favorite, even though it’s 0-2 against the spread so far in this series.
The Rangers narrowly won Game 1 and were blown out in Game 2, so Arizona has been better. The Diamondbacks are also 3-1 at home in these playoffs.
With Scherzer struggling, Arizona can put some runs on the board and at least keep this game close. The Diamondbacks have scored at least four runs in four straight games.
If Texas wins, it may not be by multiple runs, especially with how well Pfaadt has been pitching. It could be another somewhat quiet offensive showing for the Rangers, who are 2-6 on a -1.5 runline in their last eight games.
Arizona has covered +1.5 in four consecutive games and six of its last seven. Based on recent trends, Diamondbacks +1.5 looks like the better play here.
Pick: Diamondbacks runline
Over/Under
Looking at the Over/Under, the Over has hit in both games this series.
Both games have featured double-digit runs, with 11 total runs in Game 1 and 10 in Game 2. That’s not surprising, as both offenses have been swinging the bats well and both pitching staffs are potentially fatigued toward the end of a long season.
Thanks to its prolific offense and vulnerable bullpen, Texas has trended towards high-scoring games this postseason. The Rangers’ last eight games have all finished with at least nine runs, including both of Scherzer’s playoff starts.
With an aging pitcher going up against a rookie, there’s potential for another lofty total in Game 3 if both starters struggle. Take the Over.
Pick: Over 9 runs
Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
