Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Pick, odds for Game 3 of World Series in 2023 MLB playoffs

After a wild first two games of the 2023 World Series, the scene now shifts to the desert for Game 3, where the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers will both be looking to put themselves in the driver’s seat. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is set for 8:03 p.m. ET. The Rangers are hoping Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA) can turn back the clock after a bumpy start to his postseason, while the D-backs give the ball to breakout rookie Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72).

This one is a straight pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with both teams listed at -110. The run total is set at 9.

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 3 picks: Monday, Oct. 30

Injury report

Rangers

N/A

Out: SP/RP Tommy Henry (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Max Scherzer vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Kudos to Scherzer for making it back to the mound after missing over a month with a serious shoulder strain, but so far in these playoffs ... well, he’s looked like a guy who missed over a month with a serious shoulder strain. Scherzer lasted just 6.2 innings across two starts against the Astros in the ALCS, allowing seven runs on nine hits and three walks over that span. His stuff hasn’t looked too bad, but he was clearly still rusty, not locating his breaking stuff nearly as well as we’re used to seeing. Scherzer gave Texas more or less what they were hoping for when they acquired him from the Mets at the trade deadline, with a 3.20 ERA over eight starts before his injury; it’s clear that, when healthy, the 39-year-old still has plenty left in the tank, even if he’s not as dominant as his Hall of Fame prime. With the previously reliable Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery struggling in Games 1 and 2, though, the Rangers suddenly need a lot more from Scherzer if they want to win this series. The righty faced Arizona once before this season, giving up four runs on five hits (including three homers) over six innings back in July as a member of the Mets.

There might not be a bigger breakout star this postseason than Pfaadt, one of the team’s top pitching prospects who looked like a bust for much of his rookie season but has caught fire in October. The righty dominated the Dodgers and Phillies, allowing just two runs on eight hits with 18 strikeouts over 14 innings in the NLDS and NLCS, and is one of the biggest reasons why Arizona’s Cinderella run has reached this point. HIs command has been night and day compared with the regular season, especially with his fastball, which got lit up for much of the year but has stayed out of trouble so far in the playoffs — allowing his excellent sweeper to shine. The 25-year-old is pitching with a ton of confidence right now, and has done it against tough lineups in tough environments; everyone has kept expecting him to come back to Earth a bit, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening any time soon.

Best bet

Arizona has been a fairly strikeout-heavy team against righties in the postseason: Just look at Game 1 of the World Series, where they whiffed eight times in just 4.2 innings against Eovaldi. Scherzer wasn’t sharp in the ALCS, but he should be better the further he gets from his time on the IL, and it’s worth noting that Houston was one of the most difficult teams to strike out in all of baseball. If he lasts at least three or four innings — and Bruce Bochy is going to give him a leash, considering how sketchy the Rangers’ bullpen is overall right now — he should get to at least five Ks.

Pick: Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)

Over/Under pick

We’ve reached 11 and 10 runs in the first two games of this series, but that’s a bit misleading: Game 1 was 5-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, while Game 2 saw Arizona score seven of their nine runs over the final three innings. All of which is to say that I’m backing the under in Game 3 and banking on the notion that we won’t see another anomalous late-inning offensive eruption. Pfaadt has been dialed in all postseason long, while this Texas offense has yet to get on track outside of two huge swings from Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia in Game 1. If Scherzer starts looking a bit more like the guy we saw down the stretch of the regular season, we should be in for another tight, relatively low-scoring game, one that hopefully won’t go haywire at the end again.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

It feels wrong to say, but I just have more faith in Pfaadt in this spot than Scherzer, and there’s value to be had on a team with home-field advantage and the starting pitching edge getting even odds. The D-backs have shown that they have the pitching to handle Texas’ fearsome lineup, and it’s hard to bet on Scherzer until we actually see him perform over several innings post-injury.