Yankees-Royals prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 30

The New York Yankees (81-79) opened their final series of the season with a blowout loss against the Kansas City Royals (55-105). They’ll look to tie the series up on Saturday when they send Clarke Schmidt (9-9, 4.65 ERA) to the mound against Steven Cruz (0-0, 5.40). First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.

The Yankees are -135 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Royals are +114 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.

Yankees-Royals picks: Saturday, September 30

Injury report

Yankees

Out: RP Keynan Middleton (right shoulder inflammation)

Royals

N/A

Starting pitchers

Clarke Schmidt vs. Steven Cruz

After having an ERA below four in his 10 starts in June and July, Schmidt’s lost steam as the season has gone on and has a 5.19 ERA over his 10 starts in August and September. He’s coming off an outing where he allowed two runs in four innings against the D-backs, and he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings against the Royals in July.

Cruz will be making his 10th MLB appearance, and his third start as an opener. He allowed one run in 4.2 innings in his three opener appearances, and allowed two runs in two innings against the Astros in his last appearance on Wednesday.

Over/Under pick

I like this over pick. The Royals bullpen has the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball (5.24), while Schmidt has struggled as the season has gone on. While I don’t think these teams are going to combine for 17 runs like yesterday, I’m expecting some scoring.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

The Yankees disappointed us yesterday, but I don’t think anyone expected Carlos Rodon to give up eight runs without recording an out. They should be better today and pick up a win to guarantee themselves a record over .500.