Yankees vs Twins Prediction, Picks, Odds

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24 April 2023

Yankees vs Twins Prediction, Picks, Odds

Minnesota ace Sonny Gray is taking the mound for tonight's series opener against the Yankees, who are countering with No. 5 starter Jhony Brito. That mismatch on the mound is putting all the value on the Twins at home — read more in our MLB picks below.

The Minnesota Twins will look to pick up a win against an opponent that has always seemed to give them trouble as they host the New York Yankees to begin a three-game series on Monday.

The Twins (12-10) won the first two games of an earlier series this month in New York before the Yankees (13-9) took the last two to earn a split.

Both teams are off to solid starts this season, though they haven’t yet enjoyed the offensive boost that much of the league has seen this year. One of Monday’s starting pitchers is in a perfect position to shut down the opposition.

We’ll break down the matchup in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Twins below.

Yankees vs Twins odds

Yankees vs Twins predictions

So far in the 2023 season, scoring is up to 4.57 runs per game, about .3 runs more than we saw in 2022. Rule changes may well be improving offensive production, especially when you consider that we’re not even into May, when warm weather typically begins to increase scoring across the league.

However, the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins haven’t been among the teams fueling the increased scoring. The Yankees are averaging only 4.23 runs per game despite having a lineup that has already produced 30 home runs in 22 games.

The Twins are even further below the league average, putting up just 4.14 runs per game. Minnesota expected to have a potent offense in 2023, especially after landing Carlos Correa after both the Giants and Mets passed on the superstar shortstop.

Yet Correa has put up just a .625 OPS on the season, and outside of Joey Gallo, nobody who has a significant amount of playing time for the Twins is off to a particularly hot start.

What the Twins have enjoyed is some excellent starting pitching, particularly from Monday’s starter, Sonny Gray. The 33-year-old is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA over his first four starts and has allowed just two runs in 22 innings. The two-time All-Star is off to the best start of his career, and while he’s certain to regress a bit, it’s a promising sign for a Minnesota team that wants to win the AL Central.

Gray will pose plenty of trouble for the Yankees lineup, but the Twins shouldn’t have the same challenge against New York starter Jhony Brito. The 25-year-old rookie is trying to fill in as the Yankees’ No. 5 starter and has managed to keep them in games, going 2-1 in his first four starts.

However, he's pitched to a 5.40 ERA in just 15 innings over those four appearances, never going more than five innings in a start. He also recorded just two outs against the Twins earlier this month, allowing seven runs on six hits.

The Yankees have had excellent relief pitching this season, but it won’t matter if the Twins can jump all over Brito as some other opponents have. This is a great opportunity for the Minnesota bats to wake up at home, while New York will find it hard to generate much offense off a resurgent Gray.

I not only like the Twins in this game, I think it’s worth laying the run line to get more value given the favorable pitching matchup. I’m backing Minnesota -1.5 in today’s series opener.

My best bet: Twins -1.5 (+145 at bet365)

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Yankees vs Twins moneyline analysis

The Twins opened Monday’s game as a -122 favorite over the Yankees. The line has moved strongly in the favor of the home team since then, with Minnesota -150 the best number you can find on the Twins as of noon on Monday. The Yankees are pulling as much as +140 as the underdog on some sites.

Both teams have played closely to their moneyline expectations so far this season. The Yankees are up a little more than a until, while the Twins are down by about the same amount.

The movement on the moneyline is almost certainly due to the lopsided pitching matchup here. Gray is off to a fast start in 2023 and has a long history of competency, if not sustained excellence. Brito is averaging under four innings per start and is still fighting to remain in the majors this season, let alone become an effective or imposing force on the mound at this level.

The Twins are probably still a good bet at -150, and if you got in while the number was even shorter, congratulations. I’ve decided to put my money on the run line tonight, but I’d also lead towards the Twins on the moneyline, as they are the clear favorites in this matchup at home.

Yankees vs Twins Over/Under analysis

The total for tonight’s game opened at a flat eight runs. However, that number has come down to 7.5 at most sites at the time of this writing. The majority of sportsbooks are favoring the Over slightly at that number, though you can still find it at -110 if you shop around, while the Under is widely available at -105.

I’ve already talked about how these teams have disappointed on the offensive end this season, and as such, both teams have trended towards the Under. The Over is just 7-15 in Yankees games in 2023, while it is 8-12-2 when the Twins play.

However, oddsmakers seem to have taken this into account when setting the relatively low 7.5 total tonight. Yes, Gray has been excellent on the mound, and the Yankees aren’t likely to put up a huge number of runs against him. But we can’t expect Brito to shut down Minnesota. It’s also notable that both of these teams are hitting slightly better against righthanded pitching.

If the total had stayed at eight runs, I might not have a recommendation on this market. But 7.5 is just a little bit too low. These teams may not be scoring as much as they want, but they are hardly anemic, and the pitching matchup isn’t good enough to change the baseline offensive expectations here. I’m leaning towards the Over.

Yankees vs Twins game info

Yankees vs Twins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.82 ERA): An 11-year veteran, Gray has bounced around the Majors generally pitching well throughout his career, including a somewhat disappointing stop with the Yankees a few years back. He's yet to allow a home run this season and is pitching to an outstanding 2.19 FIP on the season. Gray is coming off a five-inning performance against the Red Sox last Tuesday in which he gave up one run on seven hits in a no-decision.

Jhony Brito (2-1, 5.40 ERA): While Brito has never been considered one of the top prospects in the Yankees organization, the team showed confidence in him based on a steady climb through the ranks of their minor league system over the past two years. Brito is coming off a solid start against the Angels on Wednesday, allowing just one run on three hits over 4 1/3 innings. However, the Twins hit him for seven runs in just 2/3 of an inning in their first meeting on April 13.