49ers vs. Chiefs Prediction 2024 Super Bowl: Can Kansas City Beat Favorite San Francisco?

sportsbookreview.com

29 January 2024

49ers vs. Chiefs Prediction 2024 Super Bowl: Can Kansas City Beat Favorite San Francisco?

The 2024 Super Bowl features a title rematch between the favorite San Francisco 49ers and defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, and our 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction for the 2024 Super Bowl based on the best NFL odds expects a barnburner in Las Vegas on Feb. 11.

It doesn't get much better than this Super Bowl 58 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers - favorites by the Super Bowl odds for weeks - and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who will face off in Las Vegas on Sunday, Feb. 11 in a rematch of their epic duel in Super Bowl 54.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, the current Super Bowl MVP odds favorite, hoisted his first Lombardi Trophy after engineering that comeback win over the 49ers in 2020. Now, after scoring two straight wins as an underdog, he'll be catching points in the Super Bowl for the second straight year after beating the favored Philadelphia Eagles in 2023.

In addition to our Super Bowl predictions and our best Super Bowl props, here is our best 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction for the Super Bowl and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

49ers vs. Chiefs prediction: 2024 Super Bowl

Over 47.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the Chiefs' starter in 2018, these teams have met three times, including in the 49ers' last Super Bowl appearance in 2020. All three of those games cleared 50 points - and I fully expect a shootout in Super Bowl 58, too.

The 49ers' offense started slow in the NFC Championship, but QB Brock Purdy and Co. eventually showed why they finished the season ranked first in offensive DVOA and EPA/play. San Francisco rallied to score 27 points on the Detroit Lions in the second half and punted just once all game to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs finished with just 17 points in the AFC Championship, but that was somewhat by design as Mahomes feasted on underneath throws all game long against the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense. He still completed over 75% of his passes for 241 yards and a score, aided by the revival of top target Travis Kelce (116 yards).

I'd expect a more downfield approach against the 49ers, who surrendered 442 total yards on Sunday and have struggled to contain Mahomes in the past. I'm also encouraged by what I've seen from Andy Reid embracing the run game as a complement to his MVP quarterback - which is a useful weapon against a Niners front that can be gashed on the ground.

This total is a shade higher than the lookahead line of 47, but I think that speaks to what we saw from both offenses on Sunday. These teams are playing their best football offensively at the best time, and that should spell fireworks on Super Bowl Sunday.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Best Super Bowl odds

bet365 (-110)

The total for Super Bowl 58 opened between 47.5 and 48 across our best sports betting sites, just slightly higher than the lookahead line of 47 ahead of the NFC Championship.

Four of our five best sportsbooks are dealing a total of 47.5 in the hour after this matchup was set, and three are offering -110 odds. Our choice among them is bet365, but that's entirely a personal preference, and I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos - which should feature some compelling bonuses ahead of Super Bowl 58.

49ers vs. Chiefs odds

The 49ers opened at -2.5 over the Chiefs shortly after this Super Bowl 58 matchup was set, but the early action came in on the defending champions, who could be bet as short as +1 across our best sports betting apps within an hour of the NFC Championship ending.

Expect a ton of movement this week on the spread and on the total, which is dealing between 47.5 and 48 across the board. If you like the Chiefs, you might want to buy early, as it seems unlikely this line is getting to +3 after what we saw from Kansas City in the AFC Championship.