Bills Win Total Over/Under for 2023: What's the Smarter Bet

Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.

One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.

Bills Over/Under Wins, 2023:

The Bills are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.

Why You Should Bet the Over: Bills Win Total in 2023

#1 Reason to Bet the Over:

The Bills are coming off a 13-win season in which nine of the victories were by nine or more points and all three losses were by a field goal or less.

Improvement in fumble luck is likely as the offense was 30th in fumbles recovered over expected.

Despite the sixth-highest time spent leading, the Bills finished with an even turnover differential which is likely to improve as JoshAllen finished with a 2.5% interception rate, the highest of his career.

#2 Reason to Bet Over:

In Week 9 against the Jets, Allen injured his UCL, a turning point in the season.

The Bills were 6-1, and Allen was having an MVP season. His performance dramatically shifted after the injury.

His passing yards dropped by 86 yards per game and his passing touchdowns dropped by over a touchdown a game.

Allen is expected to be healthy for the start of the season and should return to pre-injury form.

#3 Reason to Bet Over:

The defense finished in the bottom half of the league in passing success rate against allowed, something that could see improvement in 2023.

The defense had terrible injury luck finishing with the second-highest adjusted games lost to injury, which is likely to regress to the mean.

Why You Should Bet the Under: Bills Win Total in 2023

#1 Reason to Bet the Under:

The Bills are projected to have the fourth-most difficult schedule, the tenth-largest jump in difficult year over year.

The schedule of opposing quarterbacks includes PatrickMahomes, JoeBurrow, JustinHerbert, JalenHurts, AaronRodgers twice, DakPrescott, TrevorLawrence, and TuaTagovailoa twice.

The Bills have the most difficult schedule from Week 11 onward. Six of the last seven games are against teams projected to finish with a winning record.

Adding to the difficulty of the end of the season is the fact that four of their final six games are played on the road including a game on the west coast in Los Angeles

#2 Reason to Bet the Under:

Red zone efficiency could take a step backward in 2023 as the defense ranked second and the offense ranked ninth.

The offense scored a touchdown on 60% of red zone possessions and the defense allowed a touchdown on 45.6% of opposition possessions, a 14.4% difference that will be difficult to replicate.

#3 Reason to Bet the Under:

The offensive line is a potential liability as the schedule of opposing pass rushers is top five in difficulty, a significant increase in difficulty over last season.

The Bills allowed a 44.2% pressure rate in the playoffs, highlighting the offensive line struggles.

Buffalo Bills Strength of Schedule:

The Bills are ranked #29 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the fourth-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book

All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.