2024 MLB Free Agency Predictions & Betting Odds

The MLB offseason is cooking now. Shohei Ohtani has a new home with the Dodgers and Juan Soto has been swapped to the Yankees.

With the biggest fish off this year's free agency board, there are still some solid starting pitchers and a few other big bats looking for new homes.

2024 MLB Free Agents: Odds And Predictions

With Ohtani signed, here are my predictions for where the remaining stars of the MLB free-agent class of 2023-24 will end up:

Cody Bellinger: MLB Free Agent Predictions

With Ohtani off the board, all eyes are on Cody Bellinger. He's got a particularly interesting free agency, as Belli can play all four different positions and there's also some extreme duality to his career. The former Dodger and Cub has posted full-season OPS as high as 1.035 and as low as .542 already in his career. There is MVP-level highs and catastrophic lows for the 28-year-old, but someone's going to bet on the ups this winter.

After missing out on Ohtani and with not many big bats left on the board, the Jays and Cubs are two teams that will be forced to make that bet. I would've included the Giants in that club, before they signed Korean OF Jung-Hoo Lee to a $113-million deal. I like sprinkling on both Toronto and Chicago in this market, because I'd be shocked if he ends up anywhere else.

Best Bet: Blue Jays (+325) or Cubs (+325)

Matt Chapman: MLB Free Agent Predictions

If they whiff on Bellinger, the Blue Jays are a natural fit to bring Chapman back, as his departure will leave a massive hole at the hot corner in Toronto. But, I think the defensive wiz likely changes uniforms this winter. 

As a Scott Boras client, Chapman is going to get a big payday, but I'm having trouble nailing down exactly where that will come from. The Field at +700 seems like a smart play here, as Chapman's market hasn't fully developed yet and a few surprise teams could jump in.

Best Bet: The Field (+700)
Value Bet: Cubs (+1000)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: MLB Free Agent Predictions

This 25-year-old righty has torn through the Japanese League the last few years, owning a 1.16 ERA in 24 starts this season. He's got the velocity and secondary stuff that should play in the big leagues, and all the big markets want him.

The Mets had success with Japanese hurler Kodai Senga last offseason, and could double down with Yamamoto. But I think another team that successfully signed a Japanese stud last winter is the better fit: Boston. Not only have the Red Sox always been interested in the NPB imports, but they also have a desperate need for pitching. Throwing some Red Sox-caliber money at a 25-year-old Yamamoto is a good way to solve that pitching need for a long time.

Best Bet: Mets (+350)
Value Bet: Red Sox (+400)

Josh Hader: MLB Free Agent Predictions

I think the books have this one right. I've been calling Hader to the Rangers all offseason, as adding the lefty to the back of Texas' bullpen will solve their only weakness from the 2023 season.

But, looking at the Dodgers' bullpen lately, I get the Hader fit there too. If Los Angeles can't solve their rotation woes with a few trades or cheaper signings, I could see them adding an elite closer like Hader to the back of the 'pen.

Best Bet: Rangers +325
Value Bet: Dodgers +325

Blake Snell: MLB Free Agent Predictions

Snell is the one big free agent whose market hasn't really taken shape at all. It seems like he's waiting out Yamamoto to really start finding a new home, but at that point I'm not sure what destinations will be left. I could see the Giants and Dodgers making a Snell-sized splash in their rotation.

But, after trading Juan Soto, the Padres have to do something. What's easier than a reunion with the reigning NL Cy Young champion? I'd probably still bet on a San Diego signing for Snell at better odds, but at this +1500 value I'm all in.

Best Bet & Best Value: Padres (+1500)