Fresh Predictions for Next Crop of MLB Free-Agent Signings as Ohtani Saga Drags On
The 2023 MLB winter meetings did not bring the frenzy of activity that we've come to expect from the annual gathering of the baseball world, but that just means there is a lot of fun still in store for the remainder of the offseason.
The free-agent market has been slow moving due in large part to several major market teams waiting on Shohei Ohtani to make his decision. Once he chooses his next team, it could trigger a domino effect from the teams that miss out as they quickly pivot to their Plan B and Plan C options.
It looked like we might finally be headed for a resolution on the Ohtani situation on Friday when rumors had him signing with the Toronto Blue Jays, but a wild few hours on Twitter that might best be remembered for flight tracking, Shark Tank and a reservation at a sushi restaurant ultimately ended no closer to the finish line than when the day started.
Ahead we've predicted the next 10 major free-agent signings that will occur this offseason, complete with landing spots and projected contracts.
The precursor to all of this happening is Ohtani, so we'll start with his prediction before moving through the other nine predictions in alphabetical order.
Contract Prediction: 12 years, $540 million
Shohei Ohtani is the free agency domino everyone else seems to be waiting on to fall, and once he makes his decision, we could see a flurry of activity as teams pivot to the market's other top available players.
So first things first, we need to decide where we think Ohtani is going to sign.
The Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays are all viewed as contenders who are still in the running to sign the generational superstar, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have long been the favorite.
The Blue Jays dominated the news cycle on Friday and a few unconfirmed reports even had his signing as a done deal, but with no agreement in place, that might only serve to ramp up the pursuit by the other teams involved.
With a roster that is already loaded with star talent and as much payroll flexibility as any team in baseball, the Dodgers check Ohtani's box as a west coast team while also giving him arguably the best chance to contend for a title over the life of what could be a decade-long contract.
He can plug into the designated hitter spot or begin a potential transition to right field now that the Dodgers have announced Mookie Betts will be their starting second baseman, and his role on the pitching staff can be sorted out if and when he returns to the mound.
Contract Prediction: Seven years, $154 million
The Toronto Blue Jays have a clear need for a left-handed hitter with Daulton Varsho and Cavan Biggio as the only lefty bats expected to see regular playing time on the current roster.
There is also a hole to fill in center field with Kevin Kiermaier departing in free agency after signing a one-year deal last offseason. Varsho could potentially shift over to center field, but signing Bellinger would mean a better overall defensive outfield and a more balanced starting lineup.
The Blue Jays were willing to spend big on Ohtani, so the money is there, and with a quality pitching staff already in place there is arguably no better way for them to make a splash this offseason than by spending big on Bellinger.
Contract Prediction: Five years, $125 million
Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Rhys Hoskins are three players the Chicago Cubs are expected to pursue if they miss out on Shohei Ohtani as we are predicting here, and in a market that is thin on impact position players those names will be at the top of a lot of shopping lists.
The Cubs used a combination of Nick Madrigal (61 starts), Patrick Wisdom (54 starts), Miles Mastrobuoni (24 starts), Jeimer Candelario (19 starts) and Christopher Morel (4 starts) at third base last season, so Chapman would give them a more productive everyday option while allowing Madrigal to shift to a utility role where he is better suited.
Outside of his 30-homer potential offensively, Chapman is also an elite defender and alongside 2023 Gold Glove winner Dansby Swanson at shortstop the Cubs would have the best defensive left side of the infield in baseball.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $48 million
With a 100.1 mph average velocity on his sinker and a .136 opponents' batting average and 59.5 percent whiff rate on his sweeper, there is little question Jordan Hicks has some of the most electric stuff in baseball.
The 27-year-old has dealt with some injury issues and spotty command at times, but he was lights out in 2023, posting a 3.29 ERA and 11.1 K/9 with 12 saves and 13 holds in 65 appearances with the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays.
Outside of Josh Hader, there is an easy case to be made that he is the best available reliever, and the Yankees are one of a number of teams showing interest. That along with the fact that he is one of the younger free agents in this year's class should help push his contract to a four-year deal.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $40 million
Somewhat overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga, there is also an intriguing bat on this year's international market in 2022 KBO MVP Jung Hoo Lee.
The 25-year-old hit .349/.421/.575 with 36 doubles, 10 triples, 23 home runs, 113 RBI and 85 runs scored in 142 games for the Kiwoom Heroes during his MVP campaign, and while his 2023 season was cut short by a fractured ankle, he is a career .340/.407/.491 hitter over 3,947 plate appearances in the KBO.
The Padres have been actively cutting costs this offseason, but there is still enough talent on the roster for them to potentially contend, and trading away Juan Soto and Trent Grisham has created a glaring void in the outfield. Playing alongside former KBO standout Ha-Seong Kim could also make for a smoother transition stateside.
Contract Prediction: Five years, $90 million
Shota Imanaga might not possess the same frontline upside as fellow Japanese League star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he is one of the best remaining starters on the market and could slot into the No. 3 starter role on a contending team with potential for a bit more.
The 30-year-old finished with a 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 188 strikeouts in 159 innings for the Yokohama Bay Stars this past season, and he has a 2.96 ERA in 1,129.2 career innings across eight professional seasons.
Despite his undersized 5'10", 176-pound frame, he has pitched at least 140 innings every year of his career outside of the abridged 2020 campaign. The Red Sox have been linked to Imanaga as far back as September, and he would be a welcome addition to what has been an inconsistent starting staff the last few seasons.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $30 million
After pitching primarily out of the bullpen in his seven seasons with the New York Mets, right-hander Seth Lugo marketed himself as a starter last offseason and landed with the San Diego Padres on a one-year, $7.5 million deal that included a matching player option for 2024.
The 34-year-old posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 140 strikeouts in a career-high 146.1 innings, which made turning down his player option a no-brainer, and now he is one of the most sought after second-tier arms in this year's free-agent class.
The Braves have been linked to him recently by Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and he would help round out a rotation that currently features Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder.
Contract Prediction: Six years, $120 million
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 11 starts after he was acquired by the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, then he went on to shine in October while helping the team win a World Series title, so it should come as no surprise that re-signing with the Rangers is a real possibility.
The 30-year-old has been a well-regarded middle-of-the-rotation starter throughout his career, but after finishing with a 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in a career-high 188.2 innings and the going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings in the playoffs, he has raised his stock just in time for a significant payday.
With a projected rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney, the Rangers don't necessarily need to add a starter, but Dunning and Heaney have both pitched in relief before and there is little question they would be a better team with Montgomery back in the fold.
Contract Prediction: Five years, $125 million
Expect the San Francisco Giants to pivot quickly if they once again miss out on their top free-agent target, but the question is who would move to the top of their wish list if they whiff on Shohei Ohtani.
While there is little doubt they could use a middle-of-the-order bat, the starting rotation also needs help behind ace Logan Webb. Veterans Anthony DeSclafani (99.2 IP, 4.88 ERA) and Ross Stripling (89.0 IP, 5.36 ERA) both had down years, while the young duo of Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn remains largely unproven and are probably best served competing for one spot rather than filling two.
Robbie Ray turned a surprise Cy Young win into a five-year, $115 million deal with the Seattle Mariners a few years ago, and Snell presents a similarly inconsistent profile with elite peak production. Snell is actually a year older than Ray was when he hit the open market, but a reasonable guess for his contract is a similar five-year deal with a slightly higher AAV.
- 2021: 26 GS, 18-5, 1.39 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 40 BB, 206 K, 193.2 IP
- 2022: 26 GS, 15-5, 1.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 42 BB, 205 K, 193.0 IP
- 2023: 24 GS, 17-6, 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 28 BB, 176 K, 171.0 IP
Contract Prediction: Eight years, $224 million
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has seemingly been the New York Mets No. 1 target since the offseason began, and it's easy to see why after he won his third straight Pacific League MVP award following another dominant season as Japan's best pitcher.
Those three years are worth a closer look:
He just turned 25 years old in August, which means the team that signs him this offseason will be paying for the prime of his career rather than the typical free agent who is generally 29 or 30 years old.
A $28 million annual value would make him the seventh-highest paid pitcher in baseball, and would be quite a bit higher than the $24.6 million AAV that Aaron Nola received on his new deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yamamoto would slot in alongside Kodai Senga at the top of the New York Mets rotation, and what currently looks like a weakness after Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at the deadline would once again look like a potential strength.
