Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Pick & Odds: AFC Divisional Round

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16 January 2024

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Pick & Odds: AFC Divisional Round

One of the NFL's best modern rivalries adds another chapter Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs, and our Chiefs vs. Bills prediction based on the best NFL odds expects at least one superstar QB to show out in the AFC Divisional Round.

Even after a Wild Card Weekend full of compelling headlines, it's hard to beat the hype surrounding Sunday's AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.

The marquee game of the weekend will feature the seventh meeting between star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, and their third showdown in the postseason.

The Chiefs won the first two playoff matchups at home, but Sunday's game marks the first road trip of Mahomes' postseason career and just his second playoff start as an underdog. He won the first outright in last year's Super Bowl, though Allen will be out for revenge against the team that cut short two of his last three campaigns.

Here is our best Chiefs vs. Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Bills prediction

Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Anyone who says they know definitively who will win this game is kidding themselves, as these two teams have combined for some of the most wild and unpredictable finishes the sport has ever seen. They've also been wildly inconsistent this year on a week-by-week and even snap-by-snap basis, hence the strong two-way action thus far.

One thing that feels much more certain is Allen reaching paydirt on Sunday, and I'm shocked that we're catching even money on him to do so.

Only one player has rushed for more touchdowns this year than Allen, who has scored 16 times with at least one trip to the end zone in 13 of his 18 starts in 2023. He's been especially dangerous in the Bills' new-look offense down the stretch, scoring in six of his last seven games under interim coordinator Joe Brady.

That includes these teams' Week 14 meeting in Kansas City, when Allen scored his team's first touchdown in his first game with double-digit rushes all season. He's carried it 34 times in the last three weeks, and he busted one loose for 52 yards in last week's win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. That was the second-longest touchdown run by a QB in postseason history.

It's no coincidence that Allen has rediscovered his wheels since Brady took the reins of this offense, and I'd expect that to be a featured part of the game plan against Kansas City. The Chiefs love to bring constant pressure and force miscues through the air.

To that point, it's also not a coincidence that four of Allen's 23 career games with 10-plus carries have come against the Chiefs despite playing them just six times in total. Allen didn't score in either of his two playoff contests in Kansas City, but he rushed for a combined 156 yards on 18 tries and had a carry inside the 2-yard line in that 2022 postseason epic.

I love Allen's chances of punching it in on Sunday, especially with Caesars offering a bizarre outlier price compared to the rest of our best sports betting sites. This feels like rare value on Buffalo's superstar QB, which is why it earns a five-star endorsement in a game that seems destined for another thrilling finish.

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Chiefs vs. Bills best odds

As we highlighted above, the value on this wager at Caesars is shocking. Each of our other best sportsbooks offering this market has Allen priced at -115 or shorter, and he's the top choice on the board at every one of those shops.

Yet, for some inexplicable reason, Allen is listed with the third-shortest odds (+100) behind Isiah Pacheco (-118) and Rashee Rice (-110) as of Tuesday. I highly suggest grabbing those odds on Allen before they disappear, and it's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see if you can squeeze even more value out of our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000.

Chiefs vs. Bills odds

The line for this game has been all over the place through the first 24 hours of wagering, and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

The Bills opened as 2.5-point favorites on Monday night, and they were bet up to -3 at some books before some sharp buyback at that number. As of now, four of our five best sports betting apps are offering Bills -2.5 with heavy juice, while BetMGM is still dealing Chiefs +3 at an eye-watering -125 price.

We've seen some minor action on the total, which opened between 46 and 46.5 across our best live betting sites and remains that way for the most part. The biggest outlier is 45.5 at bet365 with -110 odds either way, so I'd recommend betting that now if you like the Over in this game.