Colts' Anthony Richardson 2023 NFL season odds, props: First-round pick will start Week 1 vs. Jaguars, gets Offensive Rookie of Year odds boost
Most NFL coaches will wait until after their second preseason game to name their starting quarterback if there's a battle for the position in training camp. Colts rookie Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft, started the preseason opener for Indianapolis and looked like the raw rookie he is, but coach Shane Steichen has named him the Week 1 regular-season QB against the visiting Jaguars, who rose from -3.5 to -4 at Caesars Sportsbook (and a couple of other books) with this news.
It will be the seventh consecutive season Indianapolis opens the season with a different quarterback. That ties a modern NFL mark.
Obviously, Richardson was going to be the starter at some point in 2023 after the Colts banked the future of the franchise on him with the No. 4 overall pick in the draft. He is one of the great physical specimens at quarterback in league history and could be dynamic as a runner out of the gate, but his actual passing skills and decision-making at Florida were questionable. In fact, Richardson's 24 college passing touchdowns were the fewest by a first-round QB since Michael Vick in 2001. Richardson only started 13 total games. The last first-round QB to start that few in college? Mitchell Trubisky.
In Saturday's 23-19 loss in Buffalo, Richardson finished 7 of 12 for 67 yards and an interception (on the first drive) and two carries for 7 yards. Veteran Gardner Minshew was much better in that game, completing all six attempts for 72 yards. He also oversaw an 12-play, 88-yard scoring drive. Minshew also is more familiar with Steichen's offense because both used to be with the Eagles.
If the Colts had a veteran coach trying to stay employed, I'd be willing to wager he would have gone with Minshew early in the season, but Steichen doesn't have to worry about job security. And the writing likely was on the wall. Minshew and Richardson began camp by alternating who got first-team reps, but it soon became Richardson who was getting more.
Having turned 21 in May, Richardson will be the second-youngest Week 1 starting QB since 1950 behind Sam Darnold. Only two QBs have been younger at the time of starting any game: Darnold and Tommy Maddox.
Here are Richardson's season props at DraftKings. He got a bit of a boost on the OROY odds:
- To win Offensive Rookie of the Year: +600 (third-favorite)
- Over/Under 2600.5 passing yards: Over -120 favorite
- Over/Under 15.5 TD passes: Over -125 favorite
- To lead NFL in passing yards: +15000
- To lead NFL in passing TDs: +20000
- To lead NFL in interceptions +4000
- To lead rookie QBs in passing yards: +1000
FanDuel also has two specials: Richardson to rush for at least 10 TDs is +490 and to throw at least 30 TDs is +2000. No Colts team futures odds have changed, since this development was largely expected.
There's also rushing yardage totals for Richardson yet (that's obviously tough for books to do on a QB overall much less a rookie), but the single-season franchise QB record in the Super Bowl era is 441 rushing yards set by Mike Pagel in 441, and that could be very much in jeopardy.
Since the merger, there has never been a team to have both the NFL's leading running back and quarterback rusher in the same year. Assuming the Colts work things out with former rushing king Jonathan Taylor, they have a shot to become the first.
So far, we have two locked-in Week 1 rookie QB starters in Richardson and Carolina's Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick. Houston is expected to name No. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud its starter fairly soon, and that should be it for rookie QBs in openers.
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