Colts vs. Jaguars Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 6

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13 October 2023

Colts vs. Jaguars Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 6

First place in the AFCSouth is on the line when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts,and we offer our best Colts vs. Jaguars Week 6 predictions based on the best NFL odds.

TheColts ended a five-game losing streak to the Tennessee Titans with last week’s23-16 victory. In the process, they also snapped a seven-game home losingstreak.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville returns to U.S. soil after spending the last twoweeks in London, where it beat the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills inconsecutive weeks. The Jaguars’ 3-2 start is their best since 2018.

Here is our best Colts vs. Jaguars prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Colts vs. Jaguarsprediction

Colts +4.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Recenttrends certainly favor the Jaguars in this matchup, as the home team is 11-1 SUin the previous 12 meetings between these teams, and Jacksonville has coveredseven of its last eight games against Indianapolis. However, those trends donot reflect the unique position that the Jaguars are in entering this matchup,having played in London the last two weeks.

Eightof the previous 10 teams (including the Atlanta Falcons last week) that optednot to take a bye week after returning from London have seen the Under on theirteam total cash in their first week back.

Jacksonvilledid a lot of good things offensively last week, as quarterback Trevor Lawrencehad his fifth career game with 300 or more passing yards and zerointerceptions, while Travis Etienne became the first Jaguar with 125 or morerushing yards and two touchdowns since Leonard Fournette in 2017. However,Jacksonville’s 29 first downs and 55.6% third-down conversion rate (10-of-18)was largely a product of Buffalo being decimated by injuries on the defensiveside of the ball. In addition, the Jaguars had the distinct advantage of havingone extra week to get used to the time difference in London, having playedthere the week prior.

Coltsrookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has already been ruled out with an ACjoint injury, but backup quarterback Gardner Minshew arguably gives the teamthe best chance to win.

Minshewturned in the fifth-best passer rating (112.8) of any quarterback in Week 5 inrelief of the injured Richardson, and Indianapolis is 3-0 in games he hasappeared in, while Minshew has completed 68.7% of his passes and not thrown asingle interception.

Minshewis familiar with head coach Shane Steichen’s offensive concepts from his timewith the Eagles, and the two will devise a game plan to attack a Jacksonvilledefense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacksthis season. Entering last week, Richardson’s six passes of 20 or more yardsdownfield were the second-fewest of any quarterback with a minimum of 75 passattempts, so Jacksonville has a much different offensive scheme to prepare forwith Minshew under center than it did in its 31-21 Week 1 win overIndianapolis.

Thisis a four-star play, as Minshew’s arm should open up things for a running gamethat just churned out the first player (Zack Moss) with 150+ yards rushing andtwo touchdowns versus Tennessee since 2014, and now the team has JonathanTaylor back in the mix.

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Colts vs. Jaguarsbest odds

BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 -110

Coltsbackers can find the best value at any of three of our best sports betting sites, asBetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 offer the best number available at standard -110odds.

Wewould play Indianapolis down to +3.5, so there is some flexibility even if thenumber drops closer to kickoff. Trevor Lawrence is 18-23 ATS in his career.

Colts vs. Jaguars odds

Thepoint spread at FanDuel got as high as -5.5 on Sunday night and at Caesars onTuesday morning, but each time the number reached that high, Colts backersweighed in and drove the number down.

Evenat DraftKings, on the two occasions where the spread has gotten to -5, the nextmove has always been back in the Colts’ favor. Early spread wagers are morethan 2/1 (69/31) in favor of the Jaguars.

FanDuelis the only sportsbook offering a total as high as 46.5, as all other competingsportsbooks have an O/U of 45.5. The total hit a low of 45.5 at FanDuel onMonday night, but Over backers drove the line up to 46.5, so it will beinteresting to see if the other best sportsbooks

Five of Indianapolis’ last six road gameshave gone over the projected total.