MLB Rumors (11/27): Shohei Ohtani Price Tag, STL Plans, More
MLB RUMORS — The market is finally starting to hum now, with free agent pitchers Aaron Nola (Phillies: 7/$172M), Sonny Gray (Cardinals: 3/$75M), and Kenta Maeda (Tigers: 2/$24M) all signed up. Plus, Japanese starters Yoshinobu Yamamoto (last week) and Shota Imanaga (today) have finally been posted.
With Thanksgiving behind us and the Winter Meetings coming up, I think sh*ts about to get nice and crazy. And while there a lot of great tools out there to track the progress of the offseason, The Athletic has a really nifty tool for each of the top-40 free agents, including the a recap of the last three years’ performance, the projected price tag, and the “best fit” teams.
Among the mentions for the Cubs: Cody Bellinger (#4), Matt Chapman (#8), Rhys Hoskins (#13), Jeimer Candelario (#14), Justin Turner (#28), and Brandon Belt (#30) … in other words, the Cubs need a corner infielder.
I’ll add that we’ve also seen MLB rumors connecting the Cubs to Shohei Ohtani (#1), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (#3), Josh Hader (#10), Shota Imanaga (#12), and Robert Stephenson (#29).
Alex Bregman Available?
Well this would be pretty surprising, but Jim Duquette seems to believe that Alex Bregman might not be long for the Houston Astros.
“I think there’s a chance he may not even be playing in Houston this year. You start to hear his name mentioned in trade rumors….They’re not shopping him, but I think they’re listening, so keep an eye on Alex Bregman.”
The extended thinking here is that Bregman, 29 and a Scott Boras client, is entering his final year of team control ($28.5M) and is unlikely to be extended by the Astros before the season. So if the Astros want to get something out of it, now is the time. That probably goes double given the weak positional free agent market this offseason.
Even though the rumor is soft (and maybe mostly speculative? it’s unclear), it has my attention. Bregman is coming off a .262/.363/.441 (125 wRC+); 4.3 WAR season and is … ding-ding-ding a third baseman (a big need for the Cubs).
With that said, there are some red/yellow flags from his 2023 season:
… But I don’t know. He’s still Alex Bregman. And those yellow flags come along side the best walk-K mark in baseball (1.06) and a long track-record of high quality production.
Alex Bregman also played in 161 games last season, hit 25 homers, and has rated positively on defense every season in the bigs. The question is whether the Cubs would really be interested in trading for one year of control of a Scott Boras client … though that same question exists for Pete Alonso and Juan Soto! And even Tyler Glasnow comes with only one year of team control. Just an interesting new rumor to keep an eye on.
Shohei Ohtani Projections
I’m going to keep this very short and sweet, because Brett has your Obsessive Shohei Ohtani watch covered from end-to-end. The Athletic has two sets of projects for Shohei Ohtani’s contract. The first is a little more dated and subjective (via that free agent tracker): 12 years, $520M.
The second, however, is really worth your time via Eno Sarris: Sarris uses a variety of methods to project out a contract, arriving at various touchpoints ranging from $380M to $500M. There are some unquantifiable inputs here (like how much revenue Ohtani can generate on his own), but the bottom line arrives at 12 years and $450M.
“That would give Ohtani the highest overall contract, but not the highest AAV:
That would be the biggest deal in baseball history, and yet it would be reasonable given what he’s done to date and how the market has operated. Any number higher than that is banking on sponsorship deals, as well as betting on much more growth (and therefore contract inflation) industry-wide in the coming decade.”
That strikes me as a very reasonable deal and AAV for Ohtani, especially given the pitching injury.
Cardinals Plans
The Cardinals have already signed Kyle Gibson (1/$12M + 2025 option), Lance Lynn (1/$11M + 2025 option), and Sonny Gray (3/$75M) this offseason, but they’re far from down reworking their overall pitching staff or overall roster.
At The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Derrick Goold reports that the Cardinals “plan to pursue bullpen additions in the coming weeks. They are also entertaining trades with outfielders Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson drawing interest and conversation from other teams, according to sources.”
On top of that, the Cardinals are reportedly open to trading left-hander Steven Matz, whom they signed to a 4-year, $44M deal two offseasons ago. Matz, 32, has been injured and generally underwhelming since joining the Cardinals, but I’d still be surprised to see them trade away a starter (unless they had plans on inking another). Either way, it seems one thing is clear: the Cardinals are NOT sitting on their hands this offseason. Changes are coming and pretty much anything seems to be on the table, though all in service of competing again, not taking a step back.
For what it’s worth, with Lynn, Gibson, and Gray accounted for, the Cardinals estimated 2024 payroll is up to $195M ($208M for luxury tax purposes). Last year, those numbers were $178M and $201M, all of which are about as high as they’ve ever been. So I’m not sure exactly how much more they’ll be willing to spend in free agency, absence a cost-saving trade. But then again, that’s probably why they’re involved in so many of these trade rumors.
