MNF Week 9 Best Bets: Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
The NFL is back and Mondays are no longer the worst day of the week. DraftKings Sportsbook is here to make this special night even more special. Check out the NFL best bets for the Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup. The action kicks off with the New York Jets hosting the Los Angeles Chargers at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
Chargers -3.5 (-110)
Who are the real Chargers? Justin Herbert and his talented supporting cast looked dynamic on Sunday Night Football. A matchup with the Bears helped, but Los Angeles is capable of performing at a high level against any opponent. That never happens. The Chargers have been the most inconsistent team over the last decade. They live at .500 despite having great offenses and defenses. They’re indifferent. Perhaps, it’s an L.A. mindset. A move back to San Diego could reinvigorate this franchise. Or maybe they could play more games in Europe. Several weeks in Germany could discipline this team.
The Jets are not a mystery. Their play has been consistent over the last two seasons. That’s good and bad. They have one of the top defenses in the NFL, but their offense is putrid. Running back Breece Hall can break a big play at any time, but he is far from a productive every down back. Garrett Wilson is a star wide receiver in the making if the Jets can get him the ball. That’s the problem. Zach Wilson is a disaster. Nothing has changed since he entered the league. He holds the ball longer than any quarterback in the league (2.5 second pocket time). That has translated into the NFL’s highest QB Pressure Rate (34.8%). Add to that the revolving door of injured offensive lineman, and it’s no surprise that Wilson endured a 48.8% QB Pressure Rate in Week 8.
The Chargers’ offense is inconsistent and the Jets are consistently bad. The other weaknesses are similar in polarity. The Jets have a strong defense led by a top-5 pass defense but saddled by a bottom-5 rush defense. The Chargers can stop the run but struggle against the pass.
How will these opposites play out? It’s simple. The Jets have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. They rank No. 1 in QB Pressure rate while blitzing at the second-lowest rate. On the other side, the Chargers’ o-line — even without veteran center Corey Linsley — provide some of the best QB protection in the league (16.1% QB Pressure Rate). It’s a wash. Neither team has a clear cut advantage and that’s a disadvantage for the Jets. They need defensive dominance because their offense won’t hold up their end of the bargain. With the other opposite, the Chargers will concede passing yards, but the Jets can’t pass.
This matchup tilts towards the Chargers. Anything can happen at home. The Jets could be resilient or Zach Wilson can be Zach Wilson. This is more than a tilt. This is a large lean to Los Angeles. For all intents and purposes, this is a rematch of last Sunday’s primetime game. This might as well be Chargers vs. Bears II.
Weekly Special — Garrett Wilson and Austin Ekeler to combine for +150 receiving yards (+200)
This seems like easy money. Ekeler caught seven passes for 94 yards last Sunday (21 routes). The Bears are the worst in the NFL when it comes to covering receiving running backs (497 yards allowed). The Jets aren’t much better. Their 322 receiving yards allowed to RBs ranks just outside of the bottom five — and the Jets have played one fewer game than the bottom-5 teams. Ekeler should easily do his part.
The question is Wilson. Not Garrett, Zach. Last week’s win against the Giants was ugly. The weather didn’t help, but Zach Wilson hasn’t looked good in the sunshine. His flaws are highlighted above. His offensive line is depleted. Zach Wilson won’t do his part, but that’s not needed. This bet does not hinge on consistency or excellence from the former No. 2 draft pick. Most of Wilson’s passes will be misfires, but he fires enough and most shots are at Garrett Wilson. Some will go through, then it’s up to Garrett to make something happen. This is something the second-year sensation has proven he’s quite capable of doing. He can hit big plays and get chunk yards.
Better yet, the Chargers allow big plays and chunk yards. They have surrendered 2,082 receiving yards (third-worst), 7.2 net yards per attempt (worst) and 986 yards after the catch (sixth-worst). The cherry on the top is that the Chargers grade out as one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of explosive plays per dropback.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
