Rutgers vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 12

Penn State's offense sputtered yet again in a big spot, failing to keep up against Michigan at home. Now, the team hosts an outmatched opponent with a new playcaller.

The offense looked so bad for Penn State in the team's Week 11 loss to Michigan that the team fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, and will look to finish the season out on a high note and get to 10 wins with its Big Ten title hopes being dashed. The team is laying nearly three touchdowns at home against Rutgers, how should we handicap this one?

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Rutgers

Kyle Monangai: Rutgers is going bowling on the back of its stout defense, but also its emerging running back, who is set to rush for 1,000 yards this season. Monangai has tallied 948 yards on the ground and seven touchdowns for the Rutgers offense, which is 34th in EPA/Rush.

Penn State

Drew Allar: Allar struggled against an elite opponent yet again, completing only 10-of-22 passes for 70 yards. Overall, this Penn State offense has put up gaudy stats against inferior opponents, inflating its resume, and this Rutgers defense lacks the athleticism to slow down the Nittany Lions on the road. With a new playcaller for the fired Yurcich, this should be a good bounce-back spot for the first-year quarterback.

While Rutgers's defense has been strong this season, 10th in yards per play allowed, I believe the team is going to struggle to hold up against a more physical and talented group in Penn State. Even if the Nittany Lions look to play a conservative game, the team has too much size up front to push the Rutgers defensive line back. The Scarlett Knights are bottom 10 in tackles for loss and 92nd in defensive line yards this season.

Rutgers has been strong in terms of limiting explosive plays, top five in both explosive run and pass rate, but teams can stay on schedule against them, 99th in defensive success rate. Even if Penn State takes a while to get down the field, the Nittany Lions should put points up on the board.

The same can't be said for the Rutgers offense, which is outside the top 100 yards per play and is averaging less than two points per drive. Penn State was able to force Michigan into a ground-based attack and overall is a top-five unit in the country in terms of yards per play allowed sacks, and success rate.

I believe Penn State will take out its frustrations on Rutgers and cover the lofty point spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.