Thursday Night Football odds, spread, line: Patriots vs. Bills predictions, NFL picks by expert on 16-7 run

Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are playing on Thursday Night Football. The Bills are tied for the lead in the AFC East with the Dolphins. New Patriots lost to Minnesota. Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model.

Oh has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots and has locked in his picks and predictions. The Patriots are favored by 4 points. Buffalo is second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) and Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13).

Patriots vs. Bills is a game with a total score of 43.5 points. Buffalo is second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) and Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13).

Josh Allen has had success against New England recently. Buffalo has won the last two meetings against the Patriots and four of the the five. The Bills also have won two of last three games at Gillette.

The Patriots lead the league in defensive EPA per game (8.30) and are one of the best defenses in the red zone (51.5% of red-zone trips). Buffalo is the third worst in red zones (76.7%). The Bills will be without star pass rusher Von Miller, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Oh is leaning Over on the point total. Oh has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back.