Thursday Night Football Week 1 Best Bets: Chiefs vs Lions

The NFL is back! The Chiefs and Lions open the 2023 season at Arrowhead with Kansas City laying -6.5 points. Vaughn Dalzell breaks down whether to bet on the favorite or underdog.

Lions at Chiefs (-6.5): O/U 54.5

Over the last 22 years, the Super Bowl Winner from the year prior has gone 18-4 on the ML (81.8%) and 13-7-2 ATS (65%) in Week 1. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season, so they fit the trend at -6.5 at home versus the Lions.

Kansas City will be unveiling its Super Bowl banner on Thursday Night, and that excitement will have Arrowhead Stadium rocking. Kansas City has also won seven straight home games and 13 of the past 14.

The Detroit Lions will be attempting to win their first season-opener since 2017, so the odds are stacked against them. The Lions’ average margin of loss in Week 1 over the past six years has been 7.6 points per game with two losses of seven or more points.

Detroit allowed Philly to score 38 points in Week 1 and opened the season 1-6 through the first seven games. The Lions lost four times in that span by four or fewer points but the two losses by more came on the road.

Detroit lost four road games by 4 (MIN), 29 (NE), 18 (DAL), and 14 points (CAR) last season. The Lions beat the Bears, Packers, Giants, and Jets on the road last year, so not impressive.

While I am a fan of Dan Campbell and what he has done with Detroit (9-8 last season), the Chiefs are in a different tier than the Lions. Kansas City remains a Super Bowl contender, while Detroit is favored to win their division for the first time in a long time.

The Lions have not won a division title since 1993 and that division was called the NFC Central!

I have to ride with the Chiefs at -6.5 at -110 odds. They fit the trend I play every season, plus they are at home and celebrating with a banner.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (1u)

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