Twins vs Angels Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

21 May 2023

Los Angeles and Minnesota will send two strong righties to the mound in a Game 3 rubber match this afternoon. Our MLB betting picks will be focusing on one hurler today as we love Pablo Lopez to continue missing bats.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A grudge match in the city of Angels will occur in Game 3 this afternoon.

The Minnesota Twins fell 5-4 in Game 1 to the Los Angeles Angels but bounced back for a 6-2 victory in Game 2. This one forecasts to be a pitcher's duel with two effective right handers on the mound. Both hurlers have the opportunity to dominate this game completely, but I'm leaning toward Pablo Lopez to do the most damage today.

Twins vs Angels odds

Twins vs Angels predictions

For Sunday’s best bet in this American League showdown, I will target plus money on Pablo Lopez’s strikeout prop. Lopez has been a punchout machine in his first year with the Minnesota Twins, posting a career-high 30.0% K-rate. That’s a notable increase from his career average of 23.8%.

I like to look at a pitcher's swinging strike rate to determine whether their K-rate is repeatable. Lopez’s 14.4% swinging strike rate is also a career high and is noticeably up from his career average of 11.9%. His chase rate ranks in the 94th percentile while his whiff rate is in the 78th percentile. Batters are swinging more at his offerings out of the zone — his 39.3% O-Swing% is a career-high and is up from his 35.2% career average.

He’s been able to work ahead in counts, generating a 70.0% first-pitch strike percentage that towers above his 61.7% number, and he’s made some noticeable changes to his approach. Lopez doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s a cerebral pitcher who hits his spots. FanGraph’s Location+ metric ranks him as the fifth-best pitcher at hitting his spots.

He faces an Angels lineup that is not immune to getting punched out as the Halos have the 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) in MLB across the last 10 days. Lopez’s strikeout prop is 6.5 at most books, but the odds are heavily juiced on the Over. There is also a 7.5 available for plus money and that’s my preferred target.

He’s tossed at least eight strikeouts in five of his eight starts this season. He’s averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game and in my opinion, that doesn’t warrant the Under being juiced like it’s an unexpected outcome.

My best bet: Lopez Over 7.5 strikeouts (+114)

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Twins vs Angels moneyline analysis

The best price available on both respective teams at the time of writing is -145 on the Angels and +135 on Minnesota.

After a rough start to the season, the Twins have had one of the best lineups in the Big Leagues lately. Across the last 10 days, they rank third in wRC+ (134) and second in wOBA (.360). They mostly relied on strong pitching to start the year but have since become a bit more balanced as the bats have come alive.

The Halos rank 16th in both wRC+ (103) and wOBA (.324) in the last 10 days, but they've had a tough time closing out series — dropping four straight Game 3s.

Minnesota has gone 6-4 in its last 10 games while the Angels have posted the same record in that time frame.

L.A. is favored because it's playing at home and Shohei Ohtani is on the bump — that much is understandable. This price does seem a bit inflated, however, considering the Twins have been extremely hot at the plate and have a quality pitcher in Lopez on the mound.

Twins vs Angels Over/Under analysis

Be sure to shop around if playing the total. Many books are offering a flat 8, but 7.5 is also showing at multiple locations.

It’s a matchup between two strong pitchers, although both haven’t been in peak form lately. Ohtani has shown signs of vulnerability with eight runs surrendered across his last two starts while Lopez was tagged for five earned in his last appearance.

Weather could play a factor as the forecast calls for temperatures of 74 degrees and 9.2 mph wind blowing straight out to center field.

Both teams have been able to rely on the bullpen this season — Los Angeles has a 3.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in relief while the Twins have a 3.82 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Minnesota has been cruising over the total lately with a 6-1 O/U record in its last seven games. The Angels have also been trending in that direction with a 3-1-1 O/U record across their last five.

Twins vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Pablo Lopez (2-2, 4.00 ERA): Lopez has been hit or miss in his first season with the Twins, surrendering 16 combined earned runs across three ugly outings but allowing just eight earned runs across his other six starts. He sports a 3.62 xERA and 3.84 FIP. His strikeout rate of 30.0% is a career-high, although his 11.1% barrel rate is a career worst.

Shohei Ohtani (5-1, 3.23 ERA): Ohtani has hit a bit of a rough patch, surrendering 17 earned runs across his last four starts. His metrics offer up a mixed bag, as his 3.01 xERA is a strong indicator of future success while his 4.22 FIP is a bit of an indictment. Similar to Lopez, he’s allowing a career-worst barrel rate (8.3%) this season.