UFC Fight Night 231: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 231 at Ginasio Do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's around the UFC Fight Night 231: Almeida vs. Lewis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

Records: Almeida (19-2-0) | Lewis (27-11-0)

Almeida takes the walk to the octagon with a nation behind him, while trying to spur him on to his 6th straight win since making his UFC debut in Feb. 2022.

Not only has Almeida, a.k.a. "Malhadinho", won all of his fights at the UFC, he has been finishing each of the bouts inside the distance. Almeida has scored 4 submission victories, including 3 in the 1st round, while scoring a pair of KO/TKO wins, too.

Lewis might be the most experienced fighter Almeida has faced. He halted a 3-bout losing streak with a 1st-round KO/TKO against Marcos Rogerio de Lima at UFC 291 after just 33 seconds back in late July.

Almeida has a 3.93-to-2.60 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while landing 70.10% of those strikes. He has also been strong on the mat, a place "The Black Beast" certainly will want to avoid. Lewis has lost 2 times via submission, and he hasn't won by way of the method since submitting Rakim Cleveland at Worldwide Gladiator back in Nov. 2010. Yeah, it's been a while.

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UFC Fight Night 231: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 231: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis picks and predictions

Almeida (-550) will cost you 5½ times your potential return if you play the Brazilian straight up on the 2-way line. That's way too much risk and not enough reward.

Instead, you must get a little more specific than simply betting a fighter straight up.

ALMEIDA BY SUBMISSION (-120) is your best bet. The ground game is not where Lewis is strongest. In fact, it's where he tries to avoid going, as he is just 1-2 in his career via submission, so he'll want to keep this as a toe-to-toe brawl where he can use his punching power for a potential KO/TKO.

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+240) is an amazing value, giving bettors a chance to more than double up your initial wager.

Almeida has only gone behind the midway point of the second round once in 5 fights at the UFC level. However, facing Lewis is the biggest challenge since joining the company.

Lewis has not even made it to Round 2 in the past 3 fights, so there is concern. But this is too big of a value to pass up, especially in a fight scheduled for 5 rounds.

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