UFC London Best Bets

Joel Alvarez will continue his career 100% finish rate this weekend as he enters enemy territory to fight Marc Diakiese on his home soil. Joel Alverez is an oversized, lethal finisher at lightweight. He will have a four-inch height and reach advantage on the feet against Diakiese, and a deep arsenal of submissions off his back if Diakiese takes the fight to the ground. Diakiese’s two submission losses in his career have come by Guillotine against Rafael Alves and Dan Hooker, and Joel Alvarez has one of the best Guillotine chokes in the division. Joel Alvarez will finish Diakiese within two rounds. 

Andre Muniz vs Paul Craig 

Andre Muniz ML (-210) 

In one of the most confusing fights of the card, Paul Craig will make the cut from 205 down to 185 to take on fellow submission specialist Andre Muniz. Paul Craig’s triangle or lose style has been studied and exploited. He has not developed any type of formidable striking on the feet, and now he makes an inadvisable cut to a lower weight class late in his career. Paul Craig’s only path to victory is via submission, and here he is taking on a better submission grappler. I think Muniz can knockout Paul Craig if this stays on the feet or I think he could take him down, pass his guard avoiding the submission threat, and find his own submission or ground and pound finish.

Nathaniel Wood vs Andre Fili

Nathaniel Wood ML (-200) 

Nathaniel Wood looks to go 3-0 in his new 145 weight class in front of the hometown crowd. He takes on 33-year-old veteran Andre “touchy” Fili. Fili is a skilled striker that, I believe, can have moments in this fight on the feet as the bigger, longer man. However, Wood will be the much better minute winner, mixing in takedowns and top control, and battering leg kicks to Fili’s heavy lead leg. The deeper into the fight, the more Wood will take over, eventually winning a dominant decision.

Makhmud Muradov ML + Tom Aspinall ML (-170)