UFC betting tips: Preview and best bets for UFC London

UFC London betting tips: Saturday July 22

2pts Tom Aspinall to win by TKO/KO in rounds 1 or 2 at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

2pts Andre Muniz to win by TKO/KO or submission at 4/5 (Sky Bet)

1pt Joel Alvarez to win in round 1 at 21/10 (bet365)

1pt Shauna Bannon to win at 5/4 (General)

Knockout king

Wigan’s TOM ASPINALL makes his long awaited return to the O2 Arena, almost a year to the day that a shocking knee injury ended his UFC unbeaten streak in just 15 seconds. The 30-year-old may have officially been deemed the loser of that fight against Curtis Blaydes, but his place within the Heavyweight title picture has not suffered as a result.

Aspinall faces Marcin Tybura this weekend, a 17-fight UFC veteran with seven victories in his last eight appearances. The Polish grappler’s ascent up the totem pole has been largely dominant, but there was once a time where victories were hard to come by and his durability was being seriously questioned.

After being stopped by the thunderous strikes of Derrick Lewis in 2018, Tybura went on to suffer consecutive knockout losses at the hands of Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai the following year. Finishes are always to be expected at 265lbs, but given both men have managed to knock out just two of their combined 18 UFC opponents aside from Tybura, the concerns surrounding his durability to strikes will always remain valid.

The Polish fighter may have stayed conscious since those losses, but his strength of schedule has seen him consistently matched up against fighters who are either significantly inferior to him, or lacking in punching power. Aspinall is clearly neither of those things, holding a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt that should allow him to stay safe on the mat, as well as a multitude of fight ending weapons on the feet.

Aspinall should be fully aware that he holds a clear advantage on the feet, so a striking-based game plan is likely to feature. Should we see extended periods at range, his opponent is likely to succumb to Aspinall’s superior speed and power. Therefore, backing ASPINALL TO WIN BY KO IN R1 OR R2 at 5/6 is the move to make for Saturday night’s main event.

Grappling greats

Two high level grapplers face off on the main card, as Brazil’s ANDRE MUNIZ faces Scotland’s Paul Craig in a Middleweight showdown.

Both men have a combined 28 submission wins from 39 victories, but Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts come in all shapes and sizes. Craig has consistently relied on his patented triangle choke to pull off upsets as an underdog (including wins over Nikita Krylov, Magomed Ankalev, and former champion Jamahal Hill), but there is a strong likelihood he finds himself bested on the mat against a third-degree black belt in Muniz.

The Brazilian also has the superior wrestling of the two, which should allow him to find comfortable positions on the ground to begin building his own offence. While he will certainly have to be cautious of the dangerous guard of Bearjew, Muniz is no stranger to rolling with dangerous foes on the ground. In 2021, he became the first of 37 fighters to submit the legendary Jacare Souza, breaking his arm in under four minutes.

Mixed Martial Arts demands that fighters excel at more than just pure grappling, but neither Muniz nor Craig have ever truly demonstrated an ability to be dangerous with their striking output. Should we see both men opt to test their striking, I believe Muniz is arguably the harder hitter of the two. Couple that with the fact that Craig will be competing at a lower weight class than usual and may have to endure a difficult weight cut, and a knockout is not out of the realm of possibilities for the Brazilian.

Regardless of where the fight takes place, I do not expect it to be long before Muniz shows his superiority and dangerousness. With 19 of his 23 professional victories coming via stoppage, MUNIZ TO WIN BY KO/TKO OR SUBMISSION feels like one of the more confident props on the card at close to even-money.

Joel in one

JOEL ALVAREZ is one of the most exciting fighters to watch on the entire UFC roster. The Spaniard has only been to the scorecards once in his 22 fight career, and holds 16 submission victories to his name, alongside three knockouts.

Alvarez’s style is all about pressure. With such confidence in his submission game, he has absolutely no problems walking his opponents down and throwing powerful strikes as he hunts for a finish. This gives his foe two choices – engage in a firefight with the 6ft3 powerhouse, or shoot for a takedown and risk diving straight into one of his guard submissions.

Doncaster’s Marc Diakiese will be tasked with taming the aggressive style of Alvarez, with Bonecrusher in desperate need of a victory himself. Having lost three of his last five UFC bouts, Diakiese’s stock within the division has plummeted rather drastically, and the UK fans’ hopes of seeing him one day enter the Lightweight top 15 appear far out of reach.

Diakiese has turned to his wrestling for success in recent fights, but to force this fight to the ground will likely spell danger for the Englishman. Bonecrusher was submitted by Rafael Alves in 2021 after he was pressured into shooting takedown that led directly to a guillotine choke – a fate shared by four of Alvarez’s opponents.

Diakiese will have his opportunities to win this fight, but they will mostly likely present themselves after he weathers the very dangerous storm in round one. Given that Alvarez has 13 victories in the opening round, siding with him to add to this tally will always be a betting angle to keep an eye out for. Whether he gets the job done by knockout or submission, backing ALVAREZ TO WIN IN ROUND 1 certainly appeals at 21/10.

Debut delight

The Republic of Ireland’s SHAUNA BANNON has been impressing MMA fans in the all-female organisation of Invincta in recent months. Despite being only a year into her professional MMA career, Mama B was quickly signed to become just the third fighter from the Republic of Ireland to enter the UFC, following in the footsteps of the Notorious Conor McGregor, as well as rising prospect Ian Garry.

Bannon has a background in taekwondo, but has clearly rounded out her MMA skillset effectively, opting to initiate the grappling against most of her opponents on the regional scene. With a diverse skillset, she appears to be well-matched against Saturday night’s opponent, Bruna Brasil, despite the obvious disparity in experience.

Brasil made her way to the organisation via Dana White’s Contender Series, where she won via an emphatic head kick knockout. The Special One had a massive size and physicality advantage in that fight, and confidently walked her opponent down similarly to the aforementioned Joel Alvarez.

Unfortunately for Brasil, there will be no such advantage against Bannon, as both women are similarly built as tall and range-based strikers. Whilst both seem to favour footwork and evasiveness over aggression, Bannon’s defensive tendencies appear to be superior, and her use of straight punches should help to separate herself from her opponent in the eyes of the judges. If not in the striking department, she should also be the more diverse fighter, effectively mixing in takedowns and winning via top control.

With the bright lights of the UFC shining down on her, Bannon can feed off the home crowd and claim victory on Saturday night by KO, submission or decision. BANNON TO WIN is therefore a bet to look out for at 5/4.

Posted at 1005 BST on 21/07/23

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