2023 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker Week 0: Caleb Williams, Quinn Ewers

Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2023 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back each Tuesday as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors.

We are just days away from the start of the 2023 college football season, and it feels like it’s been years since we’ve had actual games to talk about. Conference realignment will do that to a fan’s psyche.

Finally, instead of debating whether Stanford is a better fit in the ACC or the Mountain West, we get to talk about whether or not the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, USC’s Caleb Williams, will join Archie Griffin as the only player to win the award twice. And considering the Trojans open up their season on Saturday, we’ll get to dive deep into that argument right away.

For the sake of consistency, we’ll analyze the odds at BetMGM this season. But we’ll make sure to include the best live odds overall so that if you do want to place a bet on the award race you’ll get the best value available. Here’s where things stand for the players with the 10 best odds as we exit training camp and get to play some dang football.

Consider these the sleeper picks. Daniels had the sixth-best odds to win after Week 4 last year after starting the 2022 season with similar +10000 odds. Only a mid-season injury that kept him out for four games slowed him down. Arkansas will need to win 10 games for the first time since 2011 for K.J. Jefferson to have a chance, but he’s one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in sport. Similarly, if Oklahoma is going to make a run for the College Football Playoff, it’ll be because of Gabriel.

Corum vaulted up the board late in the season last year, peaking at the third-best odds (+600) in Week 10. Unfortunately, a knee injury in Week 11 derailed that campaign. If the Michigan tailback is able to regain his form after undergoing surgery last December, he’ll be a top contender for the Heisman. If not, he’ll quickly fall off this list. It just might be too soon to say either way at this point.

It’s Joe Milton time in Tennessee. Again. For now. The 2022 Orange Bowl MVP has had trouble holding down the starting job in his career, but that’s not for a lack of talent. He got beat out at Michigan by Cade McNamara and ceded the job to Hendon Hooker with the Vols. The redshirt senior gets another go as QB1 to begin the 2023 season with Hooker off to the NFL. Allar, meanwhile, hasn’t even been officially named Penn State’s starter. So there’s that.

Only four wide receivers have won the Heisman Trophy with DeVonta Smith snapping a decades-long drought in 2020. That year, the Alabama star posted 117 catches, 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. In Year 3 at Ohio State and already arguably the best pass-catcher in college football, it’s not inconceivable to see MHJ put up similar numbers. The only thing that could slow him down is the play of his quarterback, a mostly untested Kyle McCord.

Drake Maye was the breakout star of the first month of the season last year. He finished the season with 4,321 passing yards, 45 total touchdowns and seven interceptions, breaking school records in the process. But a 9-5 record couldn’t keep him in the race for the Heisman.

Everything is lining up right for Bo Nix this year — though hasn’t that been the case in the past? Now 23 years old and with a year operating the Ducks’ offense under his belt, Nix is primed to improve on a career-best season in 2022. Most importantly, the Oregon schedule is set up perfectly for him to put up big numbers. Games against Portland State, Hawaii, Colorado, Stanford, Cal and Washington State should help Nix pad his numbers before a campaign-defining showdown with USC. That might end up being the game where the guard officially changes.

There is plenty of hype around Klubnik and Clemson this year. But the last time we saw the Tigers’ QB in action it was his teammates letting him down to the tune of four sacks and two interceptions in an Orange Bowl loss to Tennessee. Maybe a full offseason of Cade as QB1 will help keep Clemson moving forward.

Moving from Indiana to Washington did wonders for Penix last year, as he posted career highs in completions (362), yards (4,641) and total touchdowns (39). Eight interceptions hurt his cause, but the Huskies are picked to finish second in the Pac-12 this year. If they’re going to topple USC, it’ll be thanks to their quarterback play.

It wouldn’t be a preseason list without a Texas Longhorns player near the top. If you thought the pressure was intense on Ewers last year, imagine how much more he’ll feel it in 2023 with Arch Manning just waiting to get a shot behind him.

Another quarterback who posted career numbers last season after transferring, Daniels tallied  2,913 yards, 17 touchdowns passing, 11 touchdowns rushing and threw just three picks. Not to mention he ran for 885 yards.

LSU begins the season ranked No. 5 in the AP poll and opens the season with games against No. 8 Florida State. Expect either Daniels or Jordan Travis to see a decent shift in their odds after that one.

Can the king stay the king?

In college football that’s rarely the case, but until someone proves Williams isn’t the best player in the sport it’s going to be his trophy to lose.

And yet.

Not only is Williams trying to join Archie Griffin as the only other player to win the award twice, he’ll have to deal with the fact that only once since  2009 has the preseason Heisman favorite actually won the award (Marcus Mariota in 2014).

The reality is Heisman is as much a narrative-driven award as it is one based on skill. Players come from out of nowhere and seize control of the race all the time. Williams can’t contend with that this time around. Not when he’s sitting atop the mountain already. What he can do — and is surely capable of — is continue to dominate for USC and put up video game numbers. Make it so the voters don’t have a choice and you won’t have to worry about anyone else.