2023 Honda Classic Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Honda Classic. Use the PrizePicks referral codeGRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After two incredible elevated events on the PGA Tour, we descend to the Florida swing for a less exciting field at PGA National. Jon Rahm continued his torrid pace with a win at Riviera while Max Homa was a few strokes from repeating. Last season, Sepp Straka outlasted Daniel Berger and Shane Lowry at PGA National as he survived the Bear Trap on Sunday. This field has the makings for a breakout winner. Let’s take a look at betting odds before previewing the field and course.

Honda Classic Betting Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 20th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 45/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Honda Classic:

• 2022 – Sepp Straka (-10)
• 2021 – Matt Jones (-12)
• 2020 – Sungjae Im (-6)
• 2019 – Keith Mitchell (-9)
• 2018 – Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
• 2016 – Adam Scott (-9)

Hold your nose, everyone. The effect of LIV golf and the new PGA elevated event schedule has left us a casualty. The Honda Classic field looks like a Korn Ferry Tour field after watching the last two tournament fields in action. Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, and Billy Horschel are the only members of the OWGR Top 20 to play in this event. Im won in 2020 while Lowry was so close to a victory last season before losing to Sepp Straka in a rain-filled last couple of holes. Billy Horschel brings a bounty of great golf with him at this event as he is best known for turning on the jets during the Florida Swing.

While we lack the star-power to start the Florida swing, perhaps we will finally get a less chalky winner? Sepp Straka won the event at very long odds last season and without a bevy of superstars up top the door might be open for somebody to finally break through. Denny McCarthy? Hayden Buckley? Chris Kirk? Taylor Pendrith? Let’s take a quick look at the course.

2023 Honda Classic Betting Preview

• Course:PGA National
• Date: February 23 – 26
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,048
• Greens: Bermuda

PGA National might have a downshift with regard to field strength but it represents a big jump in difficulty. Some of the better golfers likely prefer a break after a couple of big events instead of putting themselves through the torture of the Bear Trap. The course is easily one of the top-ten hardest courses on tour.

The first event in the Florida Swing, PGA National is a coastal course with wind and water as its primary defense. Fifteen holes have water hazards in play. If the winds are up expect players to fight hard for pars over the weekend. Last season, Daniel Berger has a commanding lead going into Sunday before succumbing to the course and letting Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka back in to the event. Making pars and bogey avoidance must be considered strongly at this event.

The infamous Bear Trap — holes 15, 16, 17 — are going to give players fits all weekend. Prior to last year’s tournament, golfers were more than 4,000 strokes above par on these three holes since 2007. More than 1,600 balls found the water. Wow. Par is a phenomenal score at any of these holes. When we sweat this weekend, we will be crossing our fingers for dry landings on each of the three.

We will, of course, emphasize SG: Approach, driving distance, bogey avoidance, and scrambling. We have a couple of proximity ranges to consider between 150 and 200 yards as these shots occur far more at PGA National than the rest of our tour events. Last season, our model included Sepp Straka as a longshot and served us well in one of our best DFS finishes. Let’s pick out some golfers to look at for this year’s edition of the Honda Classic.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Billy Horschel +2800

Death. Taxes. Billy Horschel in Florida?

The Florida swing is Billy’s bread-and-butter and his track record at this course record is about as good as it can get without a victory. He has five of six cuts made in a row here with four top twenty finishes. Horschel loves Bermuda grass on the putting surface and will always be in consideration at a Florida course.

Honestly, when you look at this field, Horschel has to be considered one of the best players on the board and is coming in at a very, very favorable price. The recent form has not been great but that is out the window in Florida. For me, I am glad he comes in at a decreased price because of his performance at two stacked fields. Jump on. He has to be one of the more popular choices for one-and-done this week.

Harris English +4000

Harris English seems poised to go on a run as he finally approaches full health. English put together a great performance at the Genesis Invitational in a loaded field. He is four for his last four at PGA National with two top twenty finishes in 2019 and 2020.

English, prior to his injury, was a contender for the Tour Championship. He lived off of a wildly hot putter last week but his ball striking could return to form at a familiar course in a weaker field. At 40/1, English brings plenty of upside surrounded by PGA Tour members looking for their first career win.

I am not sure we need to go here as a OAD selection but he should be in consideration for our outright card.

Lee Hodges +5000

After missing cut after cut for months, Lee Hodges came back to earth with a top twenty at the Genesis last week. Last season, Hodges found himself in legitimate contention at this event before finishing 9th place.

Over his last 36 rounds, Hodges sits in the top ten in SG: Approach, Proximity 175-200, and Bogey Avoidance. I keep harkening back to field strength but we shouldn’t ignore Hodges in a weak field after a great performance. With a nice appearance last season, Hodges offers some value at 50/1.

Not a OAD consideration, Hodges merits some outright, top finisher, and DFS consideration.

Michael Kim +15000

Michael Kim is sixth in the field this week in SG: Approach. He is coming off of back-to-back strong starts. We saw Sepp Straka come in as a longshot last season. I don’t mind mixing in some bombs with the lack of field strength.

Kim recently finished top twenty at Pebble Beach after making the cut and finishing in the top 50 at the Farmer’s. We are looking at a minuscule price to pay to round out a betting card. His tee-to-green game has me interested. Keep an eye on Michael Kim.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.