Honda Classic Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry Favorites in Thin Field
The PGA Tour's Florida swing begins with a watered-down field for the Honda Classic at PGA National Resort. Read on for our top 2023 Honda Classic picks based on the best golf odds.
Golf bettors rejoice! New world No. 1 Jon Rahm, Max Homa, and many more of the rest of the world's top golfers are taking a break following the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational elevated events. That leaves the door open for a potential long-shot winner for this week's Honda Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Rahm's victory at Riviera Country Club last week returned him to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with his fifth international victory in his last nine events. That was the second straight change atop the OWGR after Scottie Scheffler usurped Rory McIlroy with his win on Super Bowl Sunday. Sungjae Im and Billy Horschel, entering the week ranked Nos. 18 and 19 in the OWGR, respectively, are the top-ranked golfers in this week's 144-man field. Sepp Straka looks to defend his 2022 Honda Classic title.
Honda Classic picks
Honda Classic odds 2023
PGA National Course Profile
Par: 70
Length: 7,125 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Architect: George and Tom Fazio with renovations by Jack Nicklaus
Water is the theme of PGA National with prominent hazards on 10 holes, including each of the final four, with Nos. 15-17 known as The Bear Trap. Just four holes played below par last year as Straka won by a single stroke over Lowry at minus-10. Only four golfers finished with a 72-hole score better than 4-under par.
Each of the two par 5s, coming in at 538 and 556 yards, played below par in 2022. The only other hole with a sub-par scoring average was the 365-yard, par-4 opening hole. That's one of three par 4s at PGA National shorter than 400 yards and just one exceeds 500 yards (508). The most common range is 400-450 yards with five such holes. The most difficult hole last year was the 479-yard, par-4 sixth with a scoring average of 4.378.
Coming into the 2023 Honda Classic, PGA National's Champion course underwent some renovations which saw the removal or reduction of several bunkers.
Honda Classic key stats
- Strokes gained: off-the-tee (distance)
- SG: around-the-green
- SG: approach
- Scrambling
- Bogey avoidance
- Proximity 125-150 yards
Due to the common threat of water at PGA National, we're prioritizing bogey avoidance in search of those in the field best equipped to stay out of trouble. Distance needs to be prioritized over accuracy when looking at strokes gained: off-the-tee. SG: around-the-green works in combination with scrambling percentage, and SG: approach needs to be considered as always, especially in the key range of 125-150 yards.
The fairways at PGA National are narrow but the rough isn't overly difficult, so long as tee shots aren't too wayward.
Honda Classic picks and predictions
Shane Lowry (+1400 via BetMGM)
Lowry is second by the consensus odds to win this week but is the third-highest ranked golfer in the field by the OWGR. Last year's runner-up in the Honda Classic, Lowry's coming off a strong T-14 result at The Genesis Invitational that bumped him up to No. 20 in the OWGR.
In last week's performance, Lowry averaged 1.81 strokes gained: tee-to-green on the field per round and lost strokes only on the greens. He gained 1.00 strokes per round with his putter on PGA National's Bermuda putting surfaces last year, so there's good reason to believe he can correct that weakness.
We're getting some slight value early in the week via BetMGM's +1400 odds. He's a play down to +1200 so long as he remains behind Im on the odds board.
Harris English (+4000 via BetMGM)
English enters the week at No. 73 in the OWGR after a 2021-22 season that was largely lost to injury. He improved from No. 90 in the world with a T-12 finish against the much stronger field at Riviera last week. While his 2.21 SG: putting per round gets the lion's share of the credit for that promising result, it could be the confidence boost he needs while returning to a familiar venue.
English made the cut at the Honda Classic in four consecutive appearances from 2017 to 2020 but didn't play either of the past two years. Those made cuts resulted in finishes of T-12 and T-17 in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Once ranked as high as 10th in the OWGR and a two-time winner when last healthy in 2021, English's injuries are giving us a very appealing price in this weak field. DraftKings and PointsBet were already down to +3500 odds for Harris to win the Honda Classic at the time of writing. Rush to bet this market-high number at BetMGM before it likely falls.
Lee Hodges (+5000 via PointsBet)
Hodges is the third top-20 finisher from last week's elite field who I'm targeting with my Honda Classic picks. Like Lowry and English, he also has course history on his side with a T-9 finish at PGA National in his tournament debut last year.
Both last year and last week, Hodges was strong in SG: approach and SG: putting, and he's averaging 0.50 true strokes gained off-the-tee per round across his last seven measured rounds. He's 58th on the PGA Tour this season in bogey avoidance and 30th in scrambling, as well as 39th in proximity from 125-150 yards.
The +5000 odds for Hodges to win the Honda Classic are consistent across the market as of Monday afternoon. There's a chance a few of our top sports betting sites raise this number later in the week with Lowry and Im likely to draw the vast majority of the handle in the weak field.
Honda Classic info
When: Thursday, Feb. 23 - Sunday, Feb. 26
Where: PGA National Resort (The Champion), Palm Beach Gardens, FL
How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
Recent Honda Classic winners
How to watch the Honda Classic
The Honda Classic will be broadcasted on Golf Channel and NBA, with PGA Tour Live streaming exclusive early-round coverage.
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
