2023 Honda Classic odds, picks, predictions: With a weak field at this weekend's PGA Tour stop, bet on these long shots, including Webb Simpson

One of the best parts of handicapping golf is the extremes you deal with from week to week. Last week, the PGA Tour played a signature event in Los Angeles featuring a field with 23 of the top-25 players in the Official Golf World Rankings. The previous tournament was the party atmosphere of the WM Phoenix Open.

This week ... it’s going to sound, look and feel different.

The PGA Tour will begin its annual Florida Swing on Thursday with Round 1 of the 2023 Honda Classic. The attendee list is, frankly, unimpressive. Only three top-20 players (Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry) and eight from the top 50 in the OWGR made the trip to the Sunshine State.

Not only does that impact the feel of the tournament from a narrative or watchability perspective, but it also completely changes how you want to play it as a punter.

At the WM Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational you had to try and beat the top players in the sport. This time around the betting favorite is Sungjae Im at +1000. Irishman Shane Lowry, whose odds were as high as +10000 for the Genesis, is the second-choice at +1600. This tournament is wide open.

And the venue should only add to the chaos. PGA National is the longtime host for this event and is consistently regarded as one of the toughest tracks on the tour.

There are water hazards all over the joint, wind can play a major factor and the “Bear Trap” at holes 15, 16 and 17 is considered one of the toughest stretches in golf. It’s not surprising that the winning scores here since 2015 have landed between 6-under par and 12-under. Don’t expect a birdie-fest at the Honda.

We’ve seen some stars win here like Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott and Sungjae Im, but we’ve also had big longshots hoist the trophy like Sepp Straka and Matt Jones.

A weak field playing on tough course means it’s time to find some longshots. Here are a few that stand out:

After spending last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, Byeong-hun An is back to being a PGA Tour regular and has quietly been trending up. The South Korean has made the cut in all four of his starts in 2023 and has finished T12, T41, T62 and T37. Those results don’t hop off the page, but if you look closer at his scorecards you’ll notice that An has been undone by one poor round in each outing and could have contended in a few instances.

This is a dart throw on a player with significant upside and pedigree. If we were contesting this tournament a year ago, Simpson would be near the top of the board. But things have gone off the rails for the longtime Tour veteran. Still, Simpson is a seven-time PGA Tour winner, has won a U.S. Open and won the PLAYERS Championship not too long ago. The U.S. Open and PLAYERS always play tough (and the PLAYERS is contested on a water-happy, difficult course in Florida), so the 37-year-old clearly enjoys a challenge. The form is ugly, but the number is huge.

Van Rooyen usually goes boom or bust. The 32-year-old made just nine cuts in 17 starts in 2021-22, but he finished inside the top-25 five times and had a top-10 finish.

In 2023, van Rooyen has made two of three cuts and posted a T6 at The American Express. The University of Minnesota also ranks fifth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds.

He has the game to contend, but he also has plenty of blow-up potential.

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