Honda Classic 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Best bets and 2023 Honda Classic picks as Sepp Straka defends his championship at PGA National and we break down our PGA Tour expert picks for the event.

The 2023 Honda Classic might not be an elevated event like the past two weeks have been on the PGA Tour, but this week’s tournament at PGA National to begin the Florida swing is one of the most fun events of the year as we get to see players try to make a name for themselves while surviving the infamous Bear Trap run of holes and compete for some good money on the week.

Sepp Straka beat out Shane Lowry down the stretch at the Honda Classic last year and both players return to the field. But now Sungjae Im, a previous winner at PGA National, is the favorite this week. So where do we go with our Honda Classic picks?

It was a step in the right direction for our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets at the Genesis as we cashed Will Zalatoris Top 20 and Rickie Fowler Top 30 to put us up 0.2 units for the week. Even still, we need to hit an outright as Justin Thomas let us down, as did Rory McIlroy as a Top 5 pick and Viktor Hovland as a Top 10.

Let’s get back on the horse though and try to cash big this week. These are our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the 2023 Honda Classic.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Genesis Invitational: 10-24-1, -4.214 units (0-7 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,235,804.22 (Justin Thomas at Genesis, $197,667)

PGA Tour expert picks for Honda Classic: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for Honda Classic: Shane Lowry (+210)

When Shane Lowry is at his best, he’s striking the ball extremely well. We didn’t see that in Phoenix but is showed up at the Genesis as he gained 4.87 strokes over the week with his ball-striking, which then led to a T14 finish. Now back to a place where he let a win slip away, I think we see him start really rounding into form. I love for him to register back-to-back Top 10 finishes at PGA National and come through for us here.

Pick to Win Honda Classic (0.5 Units): Min Woo Lee (+2500)

Min Woo Lee hasn’t been on the PGA Tour much but he’s dominated on the DP World Tour. He hasn’t finished worse than T13 since October 2022 with eight starts over that span. Lee has gained 12.38 strokes ball-striking over the last two outings combined and, in this weaker field with no one particularly playing well right now, I think he’s being undervalued. I’m taking the +2500 for him to win and not looking back as he puts himself on the map.

One and Done Pick for Honda Classic: Shane Lowry

Going back to Lowry, I think this is a place he has a good feelings for and with his recent form, I think he’s worth a One and Done, especially since I don’t foresee using him in any of the elevated events or majors down the line.

Honda Classic picks and best bets

Pierceson Coody to finish Top 20 (+650)

Is this aggressive for a guy who has missed two cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour this year? Absolutely. However, when Coody plays well, the top-ranked PGA Tour U player is in contention. Coming out onto the main tour is a big ask for him, but he has all kinds of game. I’m banking on the former Texas Longhorn stepping up in a big moment and a Top 20 finish paying out at +650 is hard to pass up on.

Robby Shelton to finish Top 20 (+260)

You won’t see Robby Shelton on the leaderboard of longer courses, but he has three Top 20 finishes and two Top 10s in his last five starts when he tees it up on shorter courses such as PGA National. This plays into his hands as a player who doesn’t hit it long but has gained more than 0.7 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds. I think he pops up again with a nice showing and the odds are ripe for him as a Top 20 play.

Tournament Matchup: Shane Lowry over Sungjae Im (+138)

Fading the favorite always feels risky, especially with the way Sungjae Im has played at the Honda, with a win in 2020 and T8 in 2021. Last year, though, he missed the cut. Moreover, his game isn’t in top form right now as he was outside the Top 40 last week after a run of Top 10 finishes, but he’s only gaining 0.58 strokes on ball-striking over his last 20 rounds. As mentioned with Lowry, I love the fit here and what he’s shown extremely recently, so I’m willing to take the plus value on this matchup.

Longshot pick to win Honda Classic: Ben Taylor (+11000)

There isn’t a ton of recent form to write home about for Ben Taylor outside of him missing a lot of cuts. But he’s played well on approach and, more importantly, finds a lot of greens. That’s huge at the Honda Classic and I think he can come out and play well. His odds should be better than this, so if you sprinkle on a longshot, he’s the guy this week.