2023 John Deere Classic Picks & Odds: McCarthy, Henley Favored at TPC Deere Run

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03 July 2023

2023 John Deere Classic Picks & Odds: McCarthy, Henley Favored at TPC Deere Run

The John Deere Classic routinely breeds first-time PGA Tour winners and with another thin field in 2023, another such breakthrough opportunity will present itself. Find out who can take advantage in our John Deere Classic betting preview below.

While it isn't a designated event and may not have a stacked field, the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run is the perfect opportunity for an unknown to make a splash.

On top of this field having just nine of the OWGR Top 50, five of the last 11 champions have been first-time PGA Tour winners and each of the last five champs closed with odds of 40/1 or longer.

We break it all down in our John Deere Classic betting preview below, including golf odds, free golf picks, and more.

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John Deere Classic picks and predictions

Russell Henley Top 20 (+110 at bet365)

This is as chalk as it gets but considering Henley’s form and his recent resume here at TPC Deere Run, this +110 price for a Top 20 — when most books have him between -110 and -120 — is one I can’t say no to.

Henley’s quietly been one of the best players in the world in 2023, sitting 11th in total strokes gained over the last three months thanks in large part to some Top-15 ball-striking metrics. That puts him atop the light field this week with field-best ranks in total strokes gained and strokes gained tee-to-green over that span.

He’s racked up eight Top 20s over his last nine starts (!) and has good memories here at the John Deere with a solo-second finish in 2019 in which he carded a final-round 61 in addition to a T11 finish in 2011.

Back him however you please (Top 10 at +220) but considering this is the thinnest field he’s been a part of this season, I don’t see 4+ months of consistent play coming to an end this week.

Adam Hadwin over Cameron Young (+105 at DraftKings)

While it feels like Henley hasn’t had a bad week in four months, the exact opposite can be said about Cameron Young, whose last good finish came at the Masters back in April.

He’s made seven starts since then to the tune of two missed cuts, a T32 finish at the U.S. Open, and four other finishes that range between T51 and T60. Not great, Bob!

Hadwin sits seventh in the field in total strokes gained over the last month and there’s a pretty sizable gap between him and Young at 58th. The Canadian was scorching hot on the greens at the Rocket Mortgage (second in the field) and also gained 5.68 shots on approach (10th) en route to his best finish of the season.

Maybe Cam snaps out of it and finally breaks through, but I’m pretty comfortable fading him here.

Odds to win 2023 John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic field and favorites

This week's odds board features just three names with shorter than 20/1 odds: betting favorite Denny McCarthy (+1,400), 2019 runner-up Russell Henley (+1,600), and Cameron Young (+1,800).

McCarthy (runner-up at Memorial, T7 at Travelers) and Henley (eight Top 20s in last nine starts) are both in excellent form and while Cam Young's been struggling, his talent makes him a serious threat to be a first-time winner this week.

Adam Hadwin sits fourth on the board at 22/1 after his playoff loss in Detroit last week, followed by Ludvig Aberg at 25/1 and 2022 runner-up Emiliano Grillo at 28/1.

The Swedish rookie has been on the receiving of some buzz after a couple of quality finishes in recent weeks. He was also just one shot off the lead heading into the weekend at the Rocket Mortgage.

Defending champion J.T. Poston sits on the board at 33/1. 2021 winner Lucas Glover is also available in the 70/1 range.