2023 John Deere Classic betting guide: Expert best bets and predictions for this week's PGA Tour event

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04 July 2023

2023 John Deere Classic betting guide: Expert best bets and predictions for this week's PGA Tour event

Many of the PGA Tour's top stars are taking this week off before two big weeks in the United Kingdom, so there is another opportunity for a breakthrough at the 2023 John Deere Classic in Silvis, Ill. The Scottish Open is next week, followed by the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool in Merseyside, England. With the elite players heading across the pond early, the 2023 John Deere Classic field will lack star power, but there are plenty opportunities for PGA Tour bettors.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Denny McCarthy as the 14-1 favorite in its latest 2023 John Deere Classic golf odds, with Russell Henley and Cameron Young both right behind at 16-1. The only other golfers shorter than 30-1 are Ludvig Aberg (22-1), Adam Hadwin (22-1) and Adam Schenk (28-1). (Head to SportsLine for all of your golf coverage, including LIV)

J.T. Poston went wire-to-wire to win last year, finishing 21-under to win by three strokes. He is one of eight former John Deere Classic champions scheduled to tee off Thursday at TPC Deere Run. They include 2018 winner Michael Kim, who went 27 under par that year to set the tournament scoring record and win by eight strokes. Steve Stricker won the tournament three years in a row from 2009-11, going 68 under par over that span.

In this John Deere Classic betting guide, we'll take you through what you need to know about the rest of the field of competitors, the course itself and any projected weather considerations before diving into SportsLine's full slate of expert picks for the event. That includes outright winners with top longshot plays as well as first-round leader, matchup and finishing position best bets.

You'll also find our projected leaderboard, One and Done picks, DFS picks and Fantasy rankings from our stable of experts, including Mike McClure, Sia Nejad, Jim Holliman and Eric Cohen.

Mike McClure is a professional DFS player and SportsLine predictive data engineer, specializing in advanced statistical analysis. His golf proprietary model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020, nailing tournament after tournament.
Sia Nejad specializes in betting and DFS in golf, among other sports. He's had incredible success in the outright and first-round leader markets. He also has been on fire on head-to-head matchups since the Charles Schwab Challenge, going 15-4 (+9.05 units) over that span.
Eric Cohen is an avid golf bettor who correctly predicted the winner of three of the past four majors and nailed Scottie Scheffler's first career victory in Phoenix last year. He is a regular guest on "The Early Wedge" SportsLine golf show on YouTube.
Jim Holliman is a longtime writer and editor who has played the game for nearly three decades, and he has a strong feel for how the players fit each course. He has nailed four winners since the Masters, including Rickie Fowler (14-1) last week, and has a knack for finding longshots to help fantasy golf players.

So, which players are our experts backing in fantasy golf and betting for the 2023 John Deere Classic? Who should you be counting on to cash in on outrights, head-to-head matchups and finishing-position wagers? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the best bets and analysis from SportsLine's top experts for the 2023 John Deere Classic!

2023 John Deere Classic

Course breakdown

The stadium course, designed by D.A. Weibring, opened in 2000, and it has hosted the John Deere Classic every year since. TPC Deere Run annually ranks as one of the easiest par-71 courses on the PGA Tour, with players having little trouble hitting fairways and greens.

Distance certainly doesn't hurt, but shorter players should be able to contend here. As with most of the PGA Tour's easier courses, success comes through superior short-iron play and strong putting. Uneven fairways, severe elevation changes and tight doglegs make it a little more challenging than the typical birdie-fest, but scores should still go very low. The average winning score since 2010 is 21 under par.

The par-4 holes average 434 yards, and the holes that close out the front and back nine are the toughest on the course. Those two par-4s lead to bogey or worse more than one-quarter of the time. All three par-5s are longer than 560 yards, and the average distance of the par-3s is 196 yards. There are two par-3 holes on each nine, and players make par or better on those four almost 70% of the time.

While the fairways are slightly wider than average, trees and deep rough lining them (as well as the doglegs) can force players to club down off the tee. Fairway bunkers are really the only other obstacle. The greens are average size and also are ringed by thick rough. They are among the easiest on tour to hit, but few golfers will find the putting surface every time, and things can get dicey when they miss.

The typical approach shots are from 100-150 yards, so strokes gained approach from the shorter distances will be key stats to consider. Strokes gained putting also will have an outsized influence, and the rough and trees around the greens make scrambling surprisingly important.

There is a strong correlation between contending at Deere Run and having success at Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge) and Innisbrook (Valspar Championship). Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry and Jordan Spieth all have won the John Deere and Charles Schwab. Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh all have won both Valspar and the John Deere. They were Senden's only two career victories. Emiliano Grillo, the 2023 Charles Schwab winner, tied for second at Deere Run last year. Taylor Moore, the 2023 Valspar champ, finished T-24 at Deere Run last year and tied for fourth last week in Detroit.

Field analysis

The John Deere Classic's scheduling right before the Open Championships has always had a negative impact on the quality of the field. Now, it's a week before the Scottish Open, and with the top pros heading over early, it's more of the same this year.

Still, this is the best field in terms of ranked players since 2012. Last year's field was the weakest of the season, with just two players ranked in the world's top 75 competing (Webb Simpson and Christiaan Bezuidenhout).

Nine of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking are teeing up this week, led by 19th-ranked Cameron Young. Other notable names in this year's John Deere Classic field are Russell Henley (No. 32), Denny McCarthy (No. 33) and Sepp Straka (No. 37).

Nick Taylor, ranked 45th, returns to action after taking a week to celebrate his stunning victory at the RBC Canadian Open. Taylor's celebration was delayed by the U.S. Open, where he missed the cut, but his countrymen were finally able to toast him last week. The 35-year-old holed a 70-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole to become the first Canadian to win his country's open championship in 69 years.

Previous John Deere Classic winners in the field are J.T. Poston (2022), Lucas Glover (2021), Dylan Frittelli (2019), Michael Kim (2018), Ryan Moore (2016), Brian Harman (2014), Zach Johnson (2012) and Sean O'Hair (2005).

Five of the past 11 John Deere Classic champions were first-time PGA Tour winners. Could that mean a chance at victory for one of the elite young golfers in the field?

Ludvig Aberg, who was within one stroke of the lead after three rounds at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, will be back in action. The Swede tumbled to a tie for 40th but has two top-25 finishes in his first three PGA Tour events. The recent Texas Tech graduate became just the second player, along with current world No. 2 Jon Rahm, to win the Ben Hogan Award in consecutive years.

Other young stars in the John Deere Classic 2023 field include Gordon Sargent, the world's top-ranked amateur, and Michael Thorbjornsen, the 2023 Pac-12 Golfer of the Year at Stanford. William Mouw, a three-time All-American at Pepperdine, and fellow 2023 All-America Tommy Kuhl will be making their PGA Tour debuts.

Weather projection

Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high near 79. Winds NNW at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 4%.
Friday: Sunny with a few clouds. High near 80 and winds E at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 5%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early, with a high near 80. Scattered thunderstorms later in the day. Winds SE at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. High near 80, with winds SSE at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Model projected leaderboard

1. Russell Henley (18-1)2. Taylor Moore (30-1)3. Emiliano Grillo (30-1)4. Denny McCarthy (14-1)5. Ludvig Aberg (22-1)6. Adam Schenk (28-1)7. Cameron Young (16-1)8. Adam Hadwin (22-1)9. Keith Mitchell (30-1)10. Eric Cole (30-1)

SportsLine summary

Henley, Moore and Grillo all have the skill, course history and recent form to win here. Henley has four straight top-20 finishes and was a runner-up at the 2019 John Deere. He is 43 under par in three appearances. Moore tied for fourth last week and won a comparable event at Innisbrook in March, and Grillo did the same at this year's Charles Schwab. Young is the highest-ranked golfer in the field, but his form has been abysmal. He has one top-50 finish (two missed cuts) in his past seven outings, and that was a T-27. Aberg is the most promising young golfer on tour and a shoo-in to win multiple events, but he has two top-25 finishes in his five starts (both T-24). Mitchell's strength is off the tee, but like the remainder of the top 10, he can get really hot with the putter. The others are all excellent both on approach and putting, the perfect profile for success here. McCarthy ranks fourth on tour in strokes gained putting, and Cole and Hadwin are in the top 30.

Outright winner best bets

Mike McClure

Sia Nejad

Jim Holliman

Adam Schenk (28-1)
Eric Cole (30-1)
Emiliano Grillo (30-1)
Longshot pick: Chez Reavie (60-1)
Longshot pick: Mark Hubbard (70-1)

SportsLine summary

In terms of my picks, Schenk has come close to his first tour victory a few times recently, and this is is the place where he can get it. The 31-year-old lost in a playoff at the Charles Schwab and also was runner-up at Valspar, both very good omens (see above). He finished seventh last week, and Schenk also was in the top six in consecutive years at Deere Run before having to withdraw in 2022. It looks like the perfect storm, and he is very good on and around the green. Grillo won that playoff at Colonial, and the Argentine tied for second at last year's John Deere. As for longshots, Reavie led the field in strokes gained approach last week, but his putter let him down as he tied for 29th. He tied for fourth the previous week and appears to be at his best right now. Hubbard has missed the cut (barely) the past two weeks but also has two top-10 finishes over his past five events. He tied for 13th here last year and should bounce back in his approach game and be right in the mix. He ranks 16th in strokes gained approach, best in this field, and makes a lot of birdies.

DFS/Fantasy picks

Mike McClure

Eric Cohen

Fantasy power rankings:

Denny McCarthy (14-1)
Adam Schenk (28-1)
Russell Henley (16-1)
Taylor Moore (30-1)
Cameron Young (16-1)
Adam Hadwin (22-1)
Emiliano Grillo (30-1)
Ludvig Aberg (22-1)
Seamus Power (35-1)
J.T. Poston (35-1)
Chez Reavie (70-1)
Keith Mitchell (28-1)
Eric Cole (33-1)
Lucas Glover (66-1)
Alex Smalley (33-1)
Nick Taylor (45-1)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (40-1)
Callum Tarren (80-1)
Zach Johnson (80-1)
K.H. Lee (55-1)

Longshot picks: Sam Ryder (100-1), Chesson Hadley (125-1), Ryan Moore (150-1)

SportsLine summary

Eric knows McCarthy is the best putter in this field and that this tournament could be decided on the greens. The 30-year-old "is primed for his first PGA Tour win," Cohen says. The expert also knows Schenk is on the verge of a victory and has had success here before, with two top-six finishes. Cohen expects the 31-year-old "to have a puncher's chance to win on Sunday." On the other hand, Eric isn't fully convinced that Young can make a run, even against this weak field. The 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year "probably shouldn't be this high," the expert says. He is the highest-ranked player in the field, so oddsmakers are giving him the benefit of the doubt, but Young's putter has let him down repeatedly the past couple of months. As for Aberg, Eric loves watching him off the tee but needs to see progress in other aspects of his game. The Swede might not win, but he should be a solid pick for fantasy purposes.