Golf

Racing Post John Deere Classic predictions and free golf betting tips

Racing Post

04 July 2023

When to bet

Where to watch the John Deere Classic

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm Thursday

Ian Wilkerson's John Deere Classic predictions

Russell Henley
2pts each-way 16-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Emiliano Grillo
1.5pts each-way 28-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Lucas Glover
1pt each-way 66-1 Hills

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With two weeks to go until the Open at Hoylake, golf's elite are in full Major-preparation mode which means that many star names have swerved the John Deere Classic in Illinois.

Those who have assembled at TPC Deere Run will take on a course that is straightforward by PGA Tour standards and, with no perceivable advantage for big hitters, there will be plenty who fancy their chances of emulating last year's winner JT Poston.

Ian Wilkerson's top tip

Russell Henley 16-1

Last year's Open runner-up Cameron Young looks to have been presented with a fine chance to claim his first PGA Tour title this week but it is questionable whether he is in the sort of form to take advantage.

His 32nd spot at the US Open has been his best result since he was seventh at the Masters so one of his rivals at the top of the market, Russell Henley, looks to have stronger claims.

While Young has struggled to get things going post-Augusta, Henley has finished in the top 20 in eight of his last nine strokeplay tournaments, a run that included fourth place at the Masters and 14th at the US Open.

He closed with a 63 in his last competitive round as he claimed 19th spot at the Travelers Championship and the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour has strong course credentials as well.

Henley was second behind Dylan Frittelli in 2019 and 11th on his last appearance two years ago, averaging just under 67 for those eight Deere Run rounds.

He has already claimed the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this season and his claims have to be respected on a course where his lack of distance off the tee will not be a handicap.

Next best bet

Emiliano Grillo 28-1

Many wondered whether Emiliano Grillo would ever fulfil the potential he showed as a youngster but gaining his first PGA Tour win for seven-and-a-half years in May's Charles Schwab Challenge could galvanise the Argentinian.

He carded a final-round 63 in gaining 15th spot at the Travelers in his last outing and revelled at Deere Run on his debut performance last year, topping the greens-in-regulation stats as he tied for second with South Africa's Christiaan Bezhuidenhout.

The Colonial success was perhaps not a shock as Grillo had secured top-ten finishes at the RBC Heritage and the Mexico Open in the weeks before that success and he will now be anxious to maintain his place in the world's top 50, a ranking that can open plenty of doors.

His performance last year came out of the blue as he had not claimed a top-ten finish in his previous 30 tournaments so, with the wind in his sails this week, he looks a decent price to go one better than 12 months ago.

Other selection

Lucas Glover 66-1

Another player who will not find his relative lack of distance off the tee a big hindrance this week is 2021 John Deere winner Lucas Glover.

The 43-year-old ended a ten-year wait for a PGA Tour win with that success and the former US Open champion should be optimistic after putting in a season-best performance at last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he finished fourth following weekend rounds of 64 and 65.

His 20th at the Canadian Open a few weeks ago seems to have convinced him he can still play well at this level and, as confidence has always been key for this steady performer, he might just be in the right place to make a strong challenge.

TPC Deere Run course guide

Course TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
Prize money $7.4m ($1.332m to the winner)
Length 7,289 yards
Par 71– three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Cameron Young (19), Russell Henley (29), Denny McCarthy (34), Sepp Straka (37), Chris Kirk (41)
Course records- 72 holes 257 Michael Kim (2018) 18 holes 59 Paul Goydos (2010)

Course winners taking part JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Jonathan Byrd, Sean O'Hair

When to bet By 1pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Time difference Illinois is six hours behind the UK & Ireland

Last week – Rocket Mortgage Classic 1 R Fowler (14-1), T2 A Hadwin (55-1), T2 C Morikawa (18-1), T4 T Moore (60-1), T4 L Glover (300-1), T4 P Kuest (400-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview TPC Deere Run is one of the most straightforward tests the PGA Tour players will face all season and the Illinois track has hosted this tournament since 2000. With the Scottish Open now being a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour, this tournament is held a fortnight before the Open.

The ninth and 18th tend to be the toughest tests but they are hardly troublesome and just three of the 11 par fours measure more than 450 yards. Even the most modest of hitters should find the three par-fives in two. Water comes into play on five holes.

Story of last year JT Poston never looked back after an opening round of 62 and went wire to wire to claim a three-shot victory over Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo.

Weather forecast Saturday could bring some rain, particularly in the morning, but the rest of the tournament should be fine with temperatures around 26C.

Type of player suited to the challenge This is not a course where big hitters have a huge advantage so its a good chance for modest drivers to gain a good result. Although Poston gained the most strikes from tee to green in winning last year, it can all come down to who putts best.

Key attribute Touch