2023 Lexington Stakes predictions, odds, date, post time, lineup: Horse racing expert reveals surprising picks

The final prep race for the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday when the starting gate opens in the 2023 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland Race Course. The Lexington Stakes 2023 is the last race to offer qualifying points toward the Derby, awarding 20 points to the winner. The Brad Cox-trained First Mission is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the 2023 Lexington Stakes odds. Disarm, who's trained by Steve Asmussen, and Arabian Lion, who's handled by Bob Baffert, are the co-second choices in the 11-horse 02023 Lexington Stakes field, at 7-2. Empirestrikesfast (4-1) and Demolition Duke (6-1) round out the top five in the Lexington Stakes odds 2023. 

Post time is 5:16 p.m. ET. With several lightly raced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any Lexington Stakes picks.

A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team who is based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. 

Last year he was red-hot in the Triple Crown prep races, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes and exactas in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also hit the 19-1 winner of the Man o' War Stakes, the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup, the superfecta in the Met Mile and multiple Pick 4s, including May 14's at Belmont for $1,851. Two weeks ago he hit the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641 and the exacta in the Florida Derby.

Now, he has handicapped the 2023 Lexington Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top Lexington Stakes predictions

One surprise: Weir is high on the chances of Prairie Hawk, even though he's a 15-1 longshot on the morning line. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Prairie Hawk has two wins in five career starts. He is coming off a fourth place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, losing by less than five lengths to Tapit Trice, who is expected to be one of the top two favorites in the Kentucky Derby.

Weir likes that Joseph's 3-year-olds are starting to run; his Lord Miles won the Wood Memorial last week. "Prairie Hawk picks up Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and is not without a chance," Weir told SportsLine. Weir is using Prairie Hawk prominently in his 2023 Lexington Stakes bets. You can see all of Weir's picks for the Lexington Stakes at SportsLine.

How to make Lexington Stakes picks

Weir's top pick is a horse who "should be able to get a nice stalking-to-midpack trip" on Saturday. He also is high on a big double-digit longshot who is "bred for the dirt." Weir is including these horses in his 2023 Lexington Stakes bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Lexington Stakes 2023? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Weir constructed his wagers? Check out the latest 2023 Lexington Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Lexington Stakes, and find out.