2024 Rebel Stakes predictions, odds, post time, horses, contenders: Surprising picks by horse racing insider

The road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby passes through Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., on Saturday when the starting gate opens in the 2024 Rebel Stakes. Regularly one of the most important stops on the road to the Kentucky Derby, the Rebel Stakes 2024 will award 50 points to the winner, virtually guaranteeing him a spot in the starting gate in the first leg of the Triple Crown in Louisville on May 4. This year's $1.3 million race has attracted a 13-horse 2024 Rebel Stakes field. Champagne Stakes winner Timberlake is the 6-5 favorite in the 2024 Rebel Stakes odds. Southwest Stakes runner-up Just Steel is the 7-2 second choice in the 2024 Rebel Stakes lineup. Nine of the 2024 Rebel Stakes horses are 15-1 or higher.

A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team since 2017, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014.

In April of last year, he hit a Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641, the exacta in the Florida Derby, a Pick 5 at Keeneland and the exacta in the Lexington Stakes. He smashed the trifecta in the Belmont Stakes for $532.96, and later in June he crushed a Pick 4 at Belmont for $555. Those were just some of his scores from 2023. Last Sunday, Weir hit the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $382.

Now, he has handicapped the 2024 Rebel Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Rebel Stakes predictions

One surprise: Weir's top pick is not Timberlake, even though he is the overwhelming 6-5 favorite. Trained by Brad Cox, Timberlake has two wins and one second in five career starts. He has not raced since finishing a well beaten fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November.

But, because of the four-month layoff, Weir is uncertain whether Timberlake has improved since his last start. "Has this horse moved forward as a 3-year-old or have the others caught up to him?" Weir told SportsLine. Weir prefers another horse over Timberlake.

Another curveball: Weir is high on the chances of Carbone, even though he's a 15-1 longshot. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer ever in North American racing, Carbone has two wins in three career starts. He is coming off his lone defeat, a seventh-place finish in the Southwest Stakes three weeks ago.

However that race was run on a muddy track, and there's no forecast for rain in Hot Springs the rest of the week. "I'll give him another chance at a nice price," Weir told SportsLine. Weir is including Carbone prominently in his wagers. You can see all of Weir's 2024 Rebel Stakes bets here.

How to make 2024 Rebel Stakes picks

Moreover, Weir is high on a double-digit longshot whose style could be the perfect fit for a win on Saturday. Weir's top pick is a horse who is "eligible to surprise." Weir is including these horses in his 2024 Rebel Stakes bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Rebel Stakes 2024, and what double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Rebel Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Rebel Stakes, all from the horse racing insider who's coming off a big score last weekend, and find out.